The US Intelligence Community's report on global threats refers to Iran in 4 sections (full version)
Dan Coats, the US Director of National Intelligence, presented the annual Intelligence Community Report to the US Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, January 29, 2019.
The United States intelligence community consists of 16 separate intelligence organizations and agencies, headed by the Director of National Intelligence.
The Director of the Intelligence Community is responsible for gathering information from various agencies and presenting it to the President of the United States.
In addition to Dan Coats, CIA Director Gina Haspel, FBI Director Christopher Wray, National Security Agency Director General Paul Nakasone, National Geospatial Intelligence Agency Director Robert Cardillo, and Defense Intelligence Agency Director General Robert Ashley were present at the congressional hearing and answered questions from senators.
The US Director of National Intelligence says threats to US national security will expand and diversify in the coming year, driven in part by China and Russia, which will intensify their competition with the United States and its traditional allies and partners.
This 42-page report is prepared in two main sections:
"Global Threats" which includes 10 headings: cyber, online infiltration operations and electoral interference, proliferation and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, counterintelligence, emerging and disruptive technologies and threats to economic competitiveness, space and anti-space, transnational organized crime, economy and energy, and human security.
"Regional Threats" which includes 8 headings: China and Russia, East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, Russia and Eurasia, Europe, Africa and the Western Hemisphere.
The report's introduction states: "A variety of issues, such as Iran's hostile behavior, deepening unrest in Afghanistan, and the rise of nationalism in Europe, will fuel tensions."
Part One: Cybersecurity
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are increasingly using cyber operations to threaten both minds and devices in a wide range of ways: stealing information, infiltrating citizens, or disrupting critical infrastructure.
Iran continues to pose an espionage and cyberattack threat. Iran is using increasingly sophisticated cyber techniques for espionage. Iran is also seeking to deploy cyberattack capabilities that would allow it to launch attacks against critical infrastructure in the United States and its allies. Tehran is using social media to target American and allied audiences.
Iranian cyber actors are targeting US government officials, government agencies, and companies to obtain information and position themselves for future cyber operations.
Iran is preparing for cyberattacks against the United States and our allies. Iran has the capability to cause localized and temporary disruptions. These operations could include disrupting the operations of a large company’s network for days or weeks, similar to the data wipe attacks that targeted multiple Saudi government and private sector networks in late 2016 and early 2017.
Online infiltration operations and electoral interference
Iran, which has used social media campaigns to target audiences in the United States and allied countries with messages aligned with its interests, will continue to use online influence operations to advance its interests.
This report is based on information collected as of January 17, 2019.
Part Two: Mass Murder, Terrorism, Counterintelligence, and Energy
The US Director of National Intelligence says our assessment remains that “Iran is not currently pursuing the key nuclear weapons-related activities that we believe are necessary to produce a nuclear bomb.” Dan Coats adds, “However, Iranian officials have publicly threatened to reverse some of their commitments under the JCPOA and resume nuclear activities that the JCPOA had restricted if Iran did not receive the tangible trade and investment benefits expected from the nuclear deal.”
Dan Coats, the US Director of National Intelligence, presented the annual Intelligence Community Report to the US Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, January 29, 2019.
The spread and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
In June 2018, Iranian officials began preparations to develop the capability to build advanced centrifuges, which is permitted under the JCPOA.
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran announced in June 2018 that it intends to resume production of natural uranium hexafluoride (UF6) and prepare the necessary infrastructure to develop enrichment capacity within the framework of the JCPOA.
Iran continues to work with the other countries in the JCPOA – China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia and the UK – to find ways to reap its economic benefits. Iran’s continued implementation of the JCPOA has increased the time it takes to produce the nuclear fuel needed for a nuclear weapon from several months to a year.
Iran’s ballistic missile program, which includes the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the region, continues to pose a threat to countries across the Middle East. Iran’s work on a space launcher, such as the Simorgh, would shorten the timeline for achieving an ICBM, as the space launcher and ICBM use similar technology.
The United States concluded in 2018 that Iran was in violation of its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention, and we remain concerned that Iran is producing chemicals used for offensive purposes and did not declare all of its prior chemical weapons capabilities when the Chemical Weapons Convention was ratified.
Terrorism
Iran will almost certainly continue to build and maintain terrorist capabilities as a deterrent option or for retaliation against its intended enemies.
Belgium and Germany thwarted a possible plot by the Iranian Intelligence Ministry to bomb an opposition group gathering in Paris in mid-2018. The gathering was attended by prominent European and American figures.
Counter-information
Our assessment is that Iranian and Cuban intelligence services will continue to target the United States, which they see as their primary threat. Iran continues to unjustly detain American citizens and has not told the truth about the case of former FBI agent Robert Levinson.
Economy and energy
Energy production challenges in some oil-exporting countries, notably Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela, as well as declining Iranian oil exports, limit the benefits of higher oil prices for those countries. Saudi Arabia, other Gulf oil-exporting countries, and Russia could benefit from increased oil revenues, but they may also roll back economic reforms that began during the oil-price slump.
Part Three: Iran's Goals in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen
“Political chaos, economic fragility, and civil and proxy wars are likely to characterize the Middle East and North Africa this year,” says the US Director of National Intelligence. “The region is in the midst of a realignment over the regional balance of power, wealth, resource management, and relationships between states and non-national political groups and the masses,” says Dan Coats.
Dan Coats, the US Director of National Intelligence, presented the annual Intelligence Community Report to the US Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, January 29, 2019.
The report, in its “Regional Threats” section under the “Middle East and North Africa” heading, discusses Iran in detail: “Iran’s regional ambitions and improving military capabilities will almost certainly threaten U.S. interests in the coming year. This is due to Tehran’s perception of growing hostility from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, as well as continued border insecurity and extremist influence.”
Iran's goals in Iraq, Syria and Yemen
Our assessment is that Iran will seek to convert its battlefield gains in Iraq and Syria into long-term political, security, social, and economic influence, while simultaneously pressuring Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates by supporting the Houthis in Yemen.
In Iraq, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) continues to pose a major threat to U.S. forces. The PMF threat to the United States is expected to increase as the threat from ISIS to the militia subsides, the Iraqi government is fully formed, some Iranian-backed groups call for the U.S. to leave Iraq, and tensions between Iran and the United States increase. We continue to monitor any signs that the regime may be directing its proxies and partners in Iraq to attack U.S. interests.
Iran’s efforts to consolidate its influence in Syria and arm Hezbollah have led to Israeli airstrikes against Iranian positions on Syrian soil, most recently in January 2019. This underscores our growing concern about the long-term prospects of Iranian influence in the region and the risk of conflict it fuels.
Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, following the attack on an Iranian military parade in Ahvaz in September, were likely intended to send a message to potential adversaries, demonstrate Tehran’s resolve to retaliate if attacked, and demonstrate Iran’s improved military capabilities and ability to project power.
Iran continues to seek to establish a permanent military base and economic contracts in Syria, and despite Israeli attacks on Iranian positions in Syria, it is likely seeking to maintain a network of Shiite foreign fighters there. Our assessment is that Iran is avoiding a major military conflict with Israel. However, Israeli attacks that have resulted in Iranian casualties increase the likelihood of conventional Iranian retaliation against Israel. Iran fired missiles from an Iranian base in Syria into the Golan Heights in May 2018, following an earlier Israeli attack on Iranian forces at the Tias Air Base in Syria.
Iran’s support for the Houthis in Yemen, including the provision of ballistic missiles, risks escalating the conflict and poses a serious threat to U.S. partners and interests in the region. Iran continues to provide assistance that enables the Houthis to attack ships near the Bab al-Mandab Strait with ballistic missiles and drones, as well as ground targets deep inside Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Part Four: Domestic Politics, Military Modernization
The US Director of National Intelligence says that “regime hardliners will become more emboldened to challenge moderate rivals, by undermining their efforts at domestic reform and pushing them to adopt a more hostile stance toward the United States and its allies.” Dan Coats believes that “moderate President Hassan Rouhani has been praised by hardliners for adopting a more hostile stance toward Washington, but he will still struggle to address ongoing public discontent.”
Dan Coats, the US Director of National Intelligence, presented the annual Intelligence Community Report to the US Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, January 29, 2019.
Domestic politics
Nationwide protests, largely focused on economic grievances, continue to draw attention to the need for major economic reforms and the unmet expectations of most Iranians. We expect more unrest in the coming months, although the protests will remain uncoordinated and without central leadership or major support from major ethnic and political groups. Our assessment is that Tehran is prepared to adopt more stringent security measures in response to renewed protests, although it prefers the use of non-lethal force.
Given widespread corruption, a weak banking sector, and business conditions that do not encourage foreign investment and trade, Hassan Rouhani's ability to reform the economy remains limited.
Military modernization and behavior
Iran continues to build military capabilities that threaten U.S. forces and U.S. allies in the region. Iran may also further harass U.S. and allied warships and merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman.
Iran continues to build, develop, and deploy a range of military capabilities that allow it to target U.S. and allied military positions in the region and disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. These systems include ballistic missiles, suicide boats, naval mines, submarines, torpedoes, armed drones, anti-ship and land-based cruise missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and air defenses. Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East and can strike targets up to 2,000 kilometers from Iran’s border. The SA-20C SAM missile system, which Russia delivered to Iran in 2016, is the most advanced long-range air defense system. Iran also produces intermediate-range SAM missiles domestically and has intermediate-range SAM missiles under development.
In September 2018, Iran targeted Kurdish groups in Iraq and ISIS in Syria with ballistic missiles in response to attacks inside Iran. The attacks demonstrated the increasing accuracy of Iran’s missiles, as well as Iran’s ability to use drones simultaneously with ballistic missiles.
Our assessment is that the IRGC Navy’s unprofessional interactions with US ships in the Persian Gulf, which have subsided over the past year, could resume if Iran seeks to demonstrate its strength in response to US pressure. Most of the IRGC’s interactions with the US fleet are professional, but in recent years the IRGC Navy has challenged the US fleet in the Persian Gulf and flown drones near US aircraft carriers. Moreover, Iranian leaders have threatened since July to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
This report is based on information collected as of January 17, 2019.
Source: Voice of America
