Robert Howard: Iran Sees Time in Its Favor; Retreat Would Be Existential Threat to IRGC

As Tehran and Washington continue negotiations, a retired American admiral says the Islamic Republic, relying on the erosion of American political will, believes time works in its favor. He warns that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is unwilling to retreat to preserve its survival, and any agreement without a change in the government’s behavior merely postpones the threat.

While the Donald Trump administration attempts to pursue both maximum pressure and diplomacy simultaneously against the Islamic Republic, a former senior American military official believes Iran’s leaders view this opportunity in their favor and hope that prolonged negotiations will weaken Washington’s political will.

Robert Howard, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the Islamic Republic, particularly the IRGC, takes a long-term view of the current crisis and believes it can benefit from political changes in the United States. He emphasized that the Iranian government has demonstrated for years that it uses time as a strategic tool in negotiations.

(It should be noted that Robert Howard was born to a military family (U.S. Navy) in Newport, Rhode Island. He grew up in Iran and received his diploma from the American School of Tehran in 1974. He is also able to speak Persian. After graduating from the Naval Academy Preparatory School in Newport, he received an appointment to the United States Naval Academy and graduated in 1979. He is also a graduate of the Naval War College and the Armed Forces Staff College. He holds a master’s degree in international relations and strategic security affairs, has served as an adjunct executive member at RAND (one of America’s most respected think tanks in the fields of national security, foreign policy, defense, economics, technology, and public policy), and is also a graduate of the Foreign Policy Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).)

Howard clarified in this interview that in his view, the IRGC is the main decision-making center in the Islamic Republic, and political officials are unable to make major decisions without the approval of this institution. He said that IRGC leaders believe that if they can endure until the U.S. midterm elections or the end of Trump’s presidency, political conditions may shift in their favor.

The former military official also assessed that the American government no longer relies solely on military options and is simultaneously using political, economic, and diplomatic tools to increase pressure on the Islamic Republic. According to him, efforts to create regional consensus, cooperation with Arab countries, and economic pressure are part of this new strategy.

However, Howard believes the main reason for the Islamic Republic’s resistance to making concessions is concern about the regime’s survival. He said that if the IRGC retreats from key components of its power, including the nuclear program, regional influence, or military capability, this would be perceived as a sign of weakness and could enable Iranian officials to be held accountable by the Iranian people.

In part of this interview, he emphasizes that for the Islamic Republic’s leaders, the issue is not merely the nuclear file or the Strait of Hormuz, but rather a matter of “life and death” for the government; because in their view, any retreat could pave the way for the collapse of the system.

Howard also expressed doubt about the effectiveness of any new agreement by referring to the experience of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He said that during the implementation of the JCPOA, the Islamic Republic, while maintaining apparent compliance with certain obligations, simultaneously developed technical infrastructure, its missile program, and enrichment capacity, and after the lifting of restrictions, was able to reach a level of enrichment where the distance to producing materials needed for nuclear weapons became very short.

He also argued that previous agreements never fully covered the Islamic Republic’s missile and drone programs, and this allowed Tehran to expand its military capability in recent years.

The retired American admiral addressed Iran’s internal situation in another part of the interview, saying that many Iranians with whom he is in contact believe the Islamic Republic is the biggest obstacle to the country’s progress. According to him, these individuals believe that Iran’s economic resources have been spent on ideological and regional projects instead of improving the lives of citizens.

These remarks come at a time when the Islamic Republic continues to face waves of internal discontent, increased arrests of civil activists, death sentences for protesters, and pressure on opponents. Critics of the government say that while Tehran negotiates the nuclear file on the international stage, it has not halted repressive policies domestically, and through arrests, executions, and restrictions on civil liberties, it seeks to suppress any protest.

Many human rights analysts also believe that any agreement focused solely on the nuclear program or regional tensions, without addressing the human rights situation and widespread suppression of citizens, cannot lead to lasting change in the Islamic Republic’s behavior; because experience from recent years has shown that the Iranian government, simultaneous with foreign negotiations, has not only failed to reduce pressure on domestic opponents but has increased it at many points.