Alarm bells ringing in the capital, mysterious closures of schools close to home and signs of a hidden crisis

The sudden closure of schools near Ali Khamenei's house, coupled with military reports and the Islamic Republic's regional isolation, indicates a serious and hidden crisis.

In the early hours of Monday morning, February 23, families in Tehran were faced with an unusual scene. Schools in a sensitive area in the center of the country’s political power were closed without notice, and students were sent home midway through the school day. There was no official announcement, no explanation of the decision, and no virtual learning options.

The sudden decision came in an area close to the presidential palace and the residence of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an area where any change in the situation raises serious security questions. There were also reports of emergency vehicles and special forces in the same area in the late hours of the previous night. However, official authorities have remained silent.

As Tehran remains shrouded in mystery, the Hebrew-language media outlet Ma'ariv has published a report that says a large portion of Israel's operations against the Islamic Republic in the recent 12-day war were carried out by drones. The report emphasizes that about 80 percent of the attacks were carried out by unmanned systems.

The report states that after the downing of a Hermes drone, the Israeli Air Force confirmed that these devices played a decisive role in the operations. Maariou wrote: "These drones operated in Iranian skies for long hours. Then they dominated the area and were able to destroy a large number of ballistic missiles and launchers."

Israeli defense company Elbit Systems has also announced that it has developed an upgraded version of the Hermes 650 drone, indicating that potential future military confrontations will rely more than ever on technology and smart operations.

If this information is accurate, the fundamental question is: "How have systems been able to remain active in Iranian skies for hours without transparent information being provided to the public?"

There are also signs of a shift in the regional equation. The National newspaper reported that, as the possibility of US military action increases, some Iraqi political figures who were previously close to Tehran are now reconsidering their positions.

The media outlet quoted analysts as saying that some Iraqi actors describe the Islamic Republic as a "sinking ship," a phrase that expresses concern about the consequences of being too close to Tehran.

In this context, attention is focused on the positions of Donald Trump, a figure who has repeatedly spoken of the possibility of taking tough action against Iran. The realization of such a scenario could affect the regional influence of the Islamic Republic and groups aligned with it, including Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis; although the reciprocal reaction of these groups could also spread the crisis.

Domestically, amid these security developments, the government’s approach to the narrative of protest victims remains restrictive. In response to the release of a video of a teacher asking students to remain silent in memory of the 40,000 dead, Education Minister Alireza Kazemi said: “This colleague who did this has definitely made a mistake and made a mistake, and the matter will be investigated and dealt with within the framework of rules and regulations.”

While the government's official death toll from the protests is far lower than estimates published by independent sources, the gap between the official narrative and the narrative of the victims' families has become one of the deepest social divides in recent years.

The sudden closure of schools in one of Tehran's most sensitive areas, coupled with military reports of drone infiltration and signs of distancing from regional allies, constitute a set of warning signs.

The Islamic Republic today faces not only external pressures, but also a society at home whose trust in official narratives has been severely eroded. As transparent information is replaced by silence, rumors and concerns fill the public space.

But the main question is: Can a government that is not accountable to public opinion and does not act transparently in the face of crises survive these simultaneous pressures? Or is the sudden closure on a winter morning just a small sign of a larger crisis brewing behind the walls of power?