Hezbollah's victory in the Lebanese elections and its impact on tensions between Iran and Israel

Lebanon's parliamentary elections were affected by the situation in Syria and tensions between regional powers. Hezbollah and its allies won a majority in the Lebanese parliament. The victory coincided with the height of a war of words between Iran and Israel.

On Sunday (May 7), Hezbollah and its political allies, the Shiite Amal movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the independent Free Patriotic Movement led by Lebanese President Michel Aoun, were able to win more than half of the parliamentary seats in the country's first elections in nine years.

The Western-backed Future Party of Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri will still form Lebanon's new government, despite losing several seats. Under Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system, the prime minister must be a Sunni.

Christian parties have also achieved a major victory by doubling their number of representatives in parliament from eight to 15.

The turnout in the parliamentary elections was lower than in the 2009 elections. In that period, 54 percent of eligible voters participated in the elections. This time, however, the turnout did not exceed 49 percent. In the Shiite areas of Lebanon, unlike in the rest of Lebanon, the number of voters was higher.

Israel's response: Hezbollah = Lebanon

Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennett was one of the first Israeli politicians to immediately react to the “Hezbollah victory.” Bennett wrote in a tweet: “The result of the Lebanese elections was based on calculations we have had for a long time. Hezbollah = Lebanon.”

He has emphasized that Israel does not distinguish between Hezbollah and the independent Lebanese government.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi also said on Monday (April 7) in response to the parliamentary elections in Lebanon that Iran supports the choice of the Lebanese people. Qasemi added: "We congratulate those who have managed to win the majority of the votes of the Lebanese people."

Just one day before the Lebanese parliamentary elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu harshly attacked the Islamic Republic for its military presence in Syria, saying, "We do not want a confrontation [with Iran], but if such a confrontation is necessary, it is better to do it now than in the future."

According to the Israeli prime minister, Iran is trying to open a new front against Israel in Syria with the help of its regional ally Hezbollah. In 2006, there was a large-scale military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

In such circumstances, to what extent could the victory of a pro-Iranian movement in Lebanon affect the tension between Iran and Israel?

“Only Hezbollah did not win”

Menashe Amir, an expert on Middle East affairs from Israel, told Deutsche Welle that Hezbollah's absolute majority was achieved in cooperation with the Amal Party and other Shiite organizations, and that Hezbollah did not achieve it alone and did not come to power alone.

He added: "The largest party faction in Lebanon will still be Hariri's Mustaqbal Party. The Mustaqbal Party and the Sunnis in Lebanon are still considered the largest political parties in Lebanon. Although we also count the Phalanges and the Maronites. The Maronites are of two types. One group is pro-Hezbollah and supports the Iranian government, and the other group is anti-Iran and pro-Mustakbal."

According to Menshe Amir, the biggest threat to Israel comes from two directions: on the one hand, the presence of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria, and on the other, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The Israeli expert on Middle East affairs said: "It should be noted that 10 years have passed since the military conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, and in these 10 years, Hezbollah has not dared to launch a new attack against Israel. However, the tension between the Iranian government and Israel has reached a critical point, and Iran is in favor of a proxy war and may want to once again pit Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel."

According to Mr. Menshe, Hezbollah is in a difficult position and is accused of causing tens of thousands of Syrians to flee to Lebanon. He also cited “the huge amount of money that the Iranian government spent on the Lebanese elections” as one of the factors behind Hezbollah’s support.

Hezbollah's strengthening and increasing tension between Iran and Israel

Mr. Menshe Amir continued: "The stronger Hezbollah becomes in Lebanon, the greater the tension between Israel and Iran. Because Hezbollah is not an internal and national movement in Lebanon, but rather the operational arm of a foreign government that has been able to gain this power in Lebanon with the help of big money. Israel does not want war and wants peace to be maintained in the region, and Israel's response depends on Hezbollah's actions."

Gil Murciana, from the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin, also spoke to Deutsche Welle Persian about the impact of Hezbollah's victory on the Israeli-Iranian tension, saying that from Israel's perspective, regardless of the outcome of the elections in Lebanon, Hezbollah will continue to have the upper hand in the country, and that any outcome will not significantly change these conditions.

This expert from the Berlin-based Foundation for Science and Politics emphasizes: "Hezbollah's military power is not affected by political developments in Lebanon, and Israel does not recognize this group as an independent political force that represents the views of the Lebanese. As an example, we can mention the Lebanese Hezbollah's joining Iran in the Syrian conflict, which was against the views of many Lebanese."

Israel and Hezbollah dispute over the blue border and the construction of the wall

According to Mr. Murciana, if Hezbollah achieves a political victory in Lebanon, it will be in a better position to support Iran's regional policies.

In this regard, he also emphasizes: "Currently, Hezbollah can have two issues to raise tensions with Israel and use them to attack Israel. The first issue relates to the dispute over the water border between Israel and Lebanon, where there are gas resources. The other issue is the construction of a wall on the Israel-Lebanon border."

According to this expert, Hezbollah's political victory and the group's increased power in Lebanon could give Iran more maneuvering power to attack Israel. All this, however, does not change the situation for Israel, because they know that Hezbollah will participate in any activity against Israel.

Source: DW