Syria on the first anniversary of Assad's fall: a trembling hope amidst old wounds and the shadow of revenge

On the first anniversary of Assad's fall, Syria's political transition remains shaky, with the country teetering between hope for change and fear of revenge.

A year after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, Syria is going through critical days as it struggles with political reconstruction, security threats, and sectarian concerns; days in which hope for liberation from a bloody era is mixed with fear of a resurgence of violence.

December 8, 2024 marked the end of a regime that had plunged the country into an unprecedented crisis after fourteen years of civil war. The lightning offensive by the opposition shattered the defense lines of Damascus and forced Assad to flee and seek refuge in Russia. According to international organizations, the war left hundreds of thousands of people dead and millions displaced, a wound that is still felt throughout Syria.

The UN Independent Commission of Inquiry on Syria, in its new assessment of the situation in the country, has presented a multi-layered picture: "Although the political transition process has begun, in the view of this commission it is still fragile, and to escape the cycle of revenge and retaliation, Syrian society needs long-term support and patience."

"While many across Syria will celebrate the anniversary, others are concerned about their current safety, and many will once again be sleeping in tents this winter. The unknown fate of thousands of people who have been forcibly disappeared remains an open and painful wound," the organization said in a report.

The commission, which has been documenting human rights violations in Syria since 2011, has welcomed the new government's steps to address past crimes, but has warned that the violence following the fall of the government has once again led to the forced displacement of people and increased ethnic and sectarian tensions.

While some parts of Syria are holding celebrations to mark the anniversary of the fall of the previous regime, the Alawite community, from which Assad himself emerged, has a different message. Ghazal Ghazal, head of the Islamic Council of Alawites in Syria and Abroad, urged his followers in a video message not to attend the celebrations. He said that parts of the Alawite community have been targeted since Assad’s fall. “Forced celebrations are a form of imposing a new and oppressive power,” he added. He also called for a general strike from December 8 to 12.

According to human rights monitors, hundreds of people have been killed in sectarian attacks, especially in coastal areas, since the overthrow of Assad, and the number of victims of this violence has exceeded 1,700.

In the north and northeast, the Kurdish Autonomous Administration has announced that all public gatherings will be banned for the next two days due to increased activity by “terrorist cells.” The administration, which established the self-governing structure in these areas in 2012, is currently negotiating the gradual integration of its structures into the central government, negotiations that Kurdish officials say are “slow and difficult.”

Meanwhile, Reuters has uncovered an exclusive report that it says is aimed at destabilizing Syria's fledgling government. The report says that key figures close to Assad (including the former head of the intelligence service and a wealthy relative) are funneling millions of dollars from their exile in Russia to equip tens of thousands of potential fighters inside Syria to pave the way for a new uprising.

The findings, based on interviews with 48 people and a review of financial documents, show that Assad loyalists are trying to regain lost influence, a "major challenge" for the new government.

After Assad was overthrown, the country's leadership fell to Ahmed Sharia, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group. He was later introduced as the interim president and is now leading a transitional government whose mission is to move the country from a stage of war and collapse to a legitimate and stable political structure.