Ali Khamenei's escape plan, in the shadow of protests and survival crisis

Ali Khamenei's escape plan, along with nationwide protests, has raised alarm bells about the survival and internal collapse of the regime.

As nationwide protests spread in Iran and signs of disobedience and disintegration within the security forces increase, new intelligence reports have revealed the preparation of a plan for Ali Khamenei to leave the country; a plan that, according to informed sources, will be activated if the suppression machine fails.

According to the British newspaper The Times on Monday morning, January 5, and according to a reliable intelligence report, it has been revealed that Ali Khamenei, the 86-year-old leader of the Islamic Republic, has an alternative scenario for leaving Tehran; a scenario that would be implemented if the military and security forces were unable to control the protests or if they disobeyed his orders. According to the report, this plan was designed directly inspired by Bashar al-Assad's flight from Syria to Russia.

According to the information released, Khamenei would leave Tehran with a very limited circle of up to 20 of his closest family members and aides if he felt seriously threatened. “The alternative plan is for Ali Khamenei and his inner circle, including his son and potential successor, Mojtaba, to leave the country,” the source said.

In this context, "Bani Sabti," an Iranian-Israeli researcher who worked for years in Israeli intelligence agencies after leaving Iran in 1987, has considered Khamenei's possible destination to be Moscow, saying: "Ali Khamenei is fleeing to Moscow because he has no other place to go."

He added: "Also, Ali Khamenei admires Putin and, in his opinion, Iranian culture is more similar to Russian culture."

According to the Times, this pattern is very similar to the flight of Bashar al-Assad; the deposed Syrian president left the Syrian capital in December 2024, as opposition forces led by Ahmed al-Sharaa advanced on Damascus, and fled by plane to Moscow to join his family.

The source added: "They have planned an exit route from Tehran to use if they feel the need. This escape plan includes collecting assets, property documents abroad, and cash to facilitate their safe passage."

The report also points to Khamenei’s extensive network of financial assets. He is said to control vast resources, some of which are managed through the Imam’s Executive Order Headquarters. Earlier, in a 2013 investigative report, Reuters estimated the value of assets under Khamenei’s control at around $95 billion, a figure that would allow for the logistical arrangements for such a plan.

The report comes as nationwide protests enter their second week and have reportedly spread to more than 70 cities in Iran. Human rights organizations have said that more than 15 people have died in the protests so far.

In an international response, US President Donald Trump wrote on the social network "Truth Social" on Friday morning, January 2: "If the Iranian regime shoots and brutally murders peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will step in to save them (the protesters). We are on full alert (armed and ready)."

At the same time, the New York Times also reported, citing three Iranian officials, that following the spread of protests, senior officials of the Islamic Republic have acknowledged in meetings and private conversations that the system has been reduced to a state of survival; an unprecedented statement that indicates the depth of the crisis at the highest levels of power.

In contrast, Ali Khamenei said on Saturday in his first public reaction to the protests: "Protest is different from rioting."
Emphasizing that "talking to a troublemaker is useless," he added: "The troublemaker must be put in his place."

The security forces tasked with suppressing the protests are under Khamenei’s direct command, and the escape plan would only be activated if he felt they were no longer following his orders. However, according to a psychological assessment by a Western intelligence agency, Khamenei relies heavily on his loyalists and personally controls key appointments and their protection, a factor that prevents a rapid decline in the top echelons of security.

The assessment describes Khamenei as a "paranoid" individual, a mental trait that played a significant role in designing the escape scenario. At the same time, the report adds that he has become both mentally and physically weaker after the 12-day war and rarely appears in public.

The intelligence analysis concludes: “He is deeply ideological on the one hand, but very pragmatic in what he perceives. He uses tactical compromises to achieve longer-term, larger goals. He thinks long-term.”

The sum of these data shows that behind the authoritarian appearance of the system, the scenario of the departure of the Leader of the Islamic Republic is no longer a far-fetched hypothesis, but has become a serious option in power calculations, at a time when popular protests and domestic and foreign pressures have challenged the existence of the system more than ever.