International Crisis Group warns: Deadlock in JCPOA revival talks may lead to "military action"

The non-governmental organization "International Crisis Group" has warned in a new report that if Iran and world powers do not achieve "meaningful progress" in the negotiations to revive the JCPOA, the JCPOA will "soon" reach a "point of no return" and the United States and its allies may "within weeks" turn to "coercive diplomacy" or even "military action," and Iran may also "move toward regional and nuclear escalation."

The report, released Monday, January 17, says Iran's nuclear program is "becoming more extensive and advanced by the day."

The International Crisis Group says that Iran's ruling conservatives are skeptical of the values ​​of the JCPOA and "believe that the country's economy has absorbed and survived the shock of US sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic."

The International Crisis Group, however, considers this view of the Islamic Republic of Iran authorities to be “weak and fragile” and says, “Unnecessary nuclear developments could also damage relations with China and Russia. Above all, getting closer to acquiring the capability to build a nuclear weapon – that is, obtaining all the elements necessary to produce a bomb without producing one – or provoking the United States militarily, whether directly or indirectly, will not provide Iran with any benefit and will likely result in a reaction from Washington.”

In another part of its report, the International Crisis Group provides a solution for progress in negotiations to revive the JCPOA agreement, saying that Iran and the United States should seize the "last opportunity" to preserve the JCPOA.

The report says that “disagreements over reversing Iran’s nuclear progress and lifting US sanctions can be resolved if Washington can ensure Tehran realizes the economic benefits of sanctions relief and Tehran takes the necessary verifiable steps to limit its nuclear program.”

In describing part of this solution, the organization wrote that "As a first step, the United States should lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and allow the relevant revenues and blocked Iranian assets abroad to be transferred back into the country."

According to the International Crisis Group, Iran must simultaneously “cease its most concerning nuclear activities, including: enrichment of high-purity uranium, installation of advanced centrifuges, and production of uranium metal.”

The organization says Tehran “must reverse the actions it has taken since 2019 in violation of the JCPOA in a manner that is consistent and verifiable with the JCPOA.”

The International Crisis Group has also recommended that the negotiating parties should engage on issues outside the framework of the JCPOA, including reducing the level of tensions between Iran and its Arab neighbors, the fate of dual-national prisoners in Iran, and facilitating humanitarian trade with Iran “in parallel with the Vienna talks.”

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, says the report is based on more than 50 interviews with officials from the JCPOA, the United States, the United Nations, and regional countries.

Earlier in October, during the Israeli Foreign Minister's visit to the United States, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken said that if the path of diplomacy with Iran, which he said is the "best path" to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, fails, "we are prepared to turn to other options, as the Israeli Foreign Minister said."

Mr. Blinken made these remarks on Wednesday, October 10, at a press conference in Washington, along with the foreign ministers of Israel and the UAE, in response to a reporter's question about the possibility of military action against Iran if diplomacy to revive the JCPOA fails.

Source: Voice of America