Highly Classified Tharallah Headquarters Document: ‘Society is in a State of Subsurface Explosion’

In a “highly classified” document from a meeting of the “Crisis Prevention Working Group on Subsistence-Based Security” obtained by Radio Farda, it was announced that “society is in a state of subsurface explosion” and social discontent in the past year has increased by “300 percent”.

This document, provided to Radio Farda by the cyber group “Edalat Ali,” is the full text of a seven-page meeting minutes from November 21, 2021 of Tharallah Headquarters, chaired by Brigadier General Hossein Nejat, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guards at the headquarters. The meeting was attended by representatives of the Tehran Prosecutor’s Office, Tehran Intelligence Organization, Police Information and Public Security of Law Enforcement, Basij Economic Intelligence, Hozrat Seyyed al-Shohada Corps, Rasoul Corps, National Merchants Basij, and Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization.

Tharallah Headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards is one of the principal institutions responsible for suppressing protests in the country. Tharallah Headquarters is the most important security headquarters in the capital of the Islamic Republic, tasked with protecting Tehran and important government institutions based in Tehran against any danger, including popular uprisings and widespread anti-government protests or military threats to the government such as coups.

Given that the commander of Tharallah Headquarters is himself the Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guards, and since he usually does not have the opportunity for direct command at Tharallah Headquarters, in practice he delegates his command authority to his deputy.

“Society is in a State of Subsurface Explosion”

Mohammadi from the Social Affairs Deputy of the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization, one of those present at this meeting, stated: “A survey was conducted in society showing that society is in a state of subsurface explosion.”

Referring to the coming to power of the principlist government of Ibrahim Raisi, he claimed that initially “national confidence indicators were repaired,” but then said that “several shocks in recent months have caused doubt in people about whether this government can or cannot [deliver].”

“Society is in a State of Subsurface Explosion”

Mohammadi from the Social Affairs Deputy of the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization, one of those present at this meeting, stated: “A survey was conducted in society showing that society is in a state of subsurface explosion.”

Referring to the coming to power of the principlist government of Ibrahim Raisi, he claimed that initially “national confidence indicators were repaired,” but then said that “several shocks in recent months have caused doubt in people about whether this government can or cannot [deliver].”

Mohammadi stressed that “the condition of the automobile and stock market severely shook confidence indices in governance,” and “currently 53 percent of society views the government’s claims with suspicion.”

This Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization official stated that “social discontent over the past year has increased by approximately 300 percent” and protests in Iran have focused on “inflation, wage arrears, social disruptions, and water.”

Mohammadi added that regarding the 4,200-toman exchange rate, “incomplete policy packages are being formulated,” and on the other hand “conflicting narratives increase doubts, which have led to increased hoarding, withholding of medicine, and rising medicine prices.”

This Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization official further referred to coronavirus vaccine injection in the country and said that “approximately seven thousand coronavirus injection stations were launched where health network personnel conducted injections through mandatory overtime, but these individuals’ overtime payments have not been made, which could confront the third dose injection with civil disobedience.”

Forecasting Protests in Final Months of Year

In this meeting, “Colonel Kaviyanis from Police Information and Public Security of Law Enforcement” presented a report on forecasts regarding protests in the final four months of 2021, stating that “gatherings in 2021 increased by 48 percent compared to 2020, and the number of demonstrators also grew by 98 percent.”

He added: “Economic-base gatherings increased by 56 percent compared to last year. Gatherings in work environments increased by 136 percent, with most gatherings held in front of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Ministry of Labor.”

According to Colonel Kaviyanis, “the time for holding gatherings was between 9 and 11:30 in the morning, and Sunday through Wednesday saw the most gatherings.”

This law enforcement official stated: “We witnessed the most gatherings in the months of July to early September and December and January [2020]. Summer, fall, and mid-fall seasons have the most economic-base gatherings.”

He specified that “the most economic-base crimes occurred in the second district headquarters (market and parliament).”

Colonel Kaviyanis reminded that “annual inflation from September 2020 to September 2021 increased by approximately 19.4 percent. (If security and comfort are compromised, it leads to insecurity).”

He also reported on the percentage increase in prices of various essential goods, stating that the actual inflation rate of main food items in November this year compared to November 2019 was between 86 to 268 percent.

These figures are significantly higher than official reports from the Statistical Center and other government institutions on inflation of food items.

This law enforcement commander’s estimate shows that the actual inflation rate of protein items such as lamb meat is 70 percent, beef 113 percent, fish 188 percent, chicken 138 percent, and eggs 186 percent.

He stated that due to sharp price increases, meat, chicken, and legumes have been replaced by soy, and domestic and foreign rice, which experienced price increases of 133 to 222 percent, have been replaced by pasta on the tables of the people.

This police information and public security official of law enforcement said that “in the final four months of the year, 55 professional gatherings are expected. Professional gatherings until the end of the year will see a 22 percent growth compared to last year.”

Colonel Kaviyanis warned that “if we do not intelligently manage the removal of preferential exchange rates and a new wave of price increases, it could be the driver of an economic crisis.”

By presenting five proposals, he called for “division of labor among members of the intelligence community in the field of subsistence-based issues and accountability,” “proposing to officials at the country level regarding the provision of basic necessities and psychological relief of society,” and “intensifying the activities of the intelligence community in helping national managers make decisions with the aim of reducing errors.”

Removal of Preferential Exchange Rate

At this meeting, Shahbazi from Tehran Intelligence Organization said that the system is “forced” to remove the 4,200-toman exchange rate and the way to compensate for it should be to resort to subsidies.

According to him, most profits from the preferential exchange rate go into the pockets of profiteers and intermediaries, more inflation is seen in imported basic goods with preferential exchange rates, and the most corruption is in the distribution of essential items.

Shahbazi added that the best way to remove the 4,200-toman exchange rate is to deposit subsidies into the accounts of vulnerable individuals and remove subsidies for upper deciles.

Removal of Subsidies for Upper Deciles

Mohrab from the Economic Team of Revolutionary Guards Intelligence also estimated that so far 20 items have been removed from the preferential exchange rate and “nothing special” happened and the plan could be implemented “without fanfare”: removing the preferential exchange rate while considering “security and psychological briefing as necessary components.”

This document further specifies that “the four upper deciles of society are to be removed from subsidy recipients” and subsidies for the six lower deciles are to be increased; the first three deciles receive 110,000 tomans monthly and the second three deciles receive 90,000 tomans monthly.

Mr. Mohrab said “if considerations are not observed, we will have 100 percent crisis.”

The Ibrahim Raisi government has sent the plan to remove the preferential exchange rate to parliament, and the 4,200-toman exchange rate is not seen in next year’s budget either; opposition to this plan has occurred in parliament and the fate of the 4,200-toman exchange rate for next year is still uncertain.

The estimate from the Revolutionary Guards commanders’ session shows that removing the preferential exchange rate will lead to further increases in food item prices, but the only way to counter it is to remove subsidies for upper deciles and deposit more subsidies into lower decile accounts.

Brigadier General Nejat in summarizing the November 21 meeting said: “The most important issue we are currently dealing with is this preferential exchange rate, and we must focus our attention and concentrate on it.”

According to him, “it should be examined what programs the government has? What is its economic and propaganda component? How can people and parliament representatives be convinced?”

Source: Radio Farda