How Serious Is the Threat of ‘Iran’s Nuclear Submarines’?

A German newspaper, citing Western intelligence agencies, says Iran has stepped up efforts to build nuclear submarines. Officials of the Islamic Republic said about a decade ago that they are in the “initial stages of building nuclear submarines.”

The German-language newspaper “Die Welt” on Saturday, April 5, referring to statements made a year ago by the commander of the Islamic Republic’s naval forces and citing Western intelligence sources, raised the question of how serious Iran’s threat to produce nuclear submarines is.

The Young Journalists Club reported on April 18, 2020, quoting Admiral Hossein Khanzadi, that the Islamic Republic is “considering” building nuclear submarines.

The commander of the naval forces of the army had said: “When you do not have deterrence and readiness to defend, peace is not established and cemented, and does not come into being at all. For this reason, the armed forces of countries exist so that this peace remains sustainable.”

Referring to the fact that heavy vessels equipped with nuclear propulsion can stay at sea for a much longer period, he said: “Who can prevent us from having this capability so that we can defend our security and establish peace.”

“Die Welt,” citing a report from Western intelligence agencies that was made available to the newspaper, says Iran has recently significantly increased its efforts to produce nuclear submarines.

Are Nuclear Submarines Part of the Nuclear Program?

The publication adds that details from these agencies’ information show that the nuclear submarine production project is precisely within the framework of those programs that Iran had on its agenda to pursue nuclear weapons until a few years ago.

Islamic Republic officials, despite some evidence, have always denied efforts to build nuclear weapons and stated that the purpose of their programs is the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

Apparently, efforts to produce nuclear submarines are concentrated in the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SEPAND) affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, whose head, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was killed on December 27, 2020, in an operation attributed to Israel near Absard in Damavand.

According to “Die Welt,” in fact, work on building nuclear submarines could lead to results that would also be applicable in building nuclear weapons.

According to this report, based on data from Western intelligence agencies, a unit for the nuclear submarine production program has recently been established at the Majd site belonging to “SEPAND.”

The Majd site is located near Malik Ashtar University of the Ministry of Defense in Tehran, and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh’s office was also located in these facilities.

The German publication, citing Western intelligence sources, says that a company called “Morvarid” has been established to advance the nuclear submarine production program and prepare its designs, with a person named Mohammad Hossein Abbaspour Beheshtabad heading it.

Possible Collaboration of University of Science and Technology Researchers

“Die Welt” says it cannot fully verify the information from Western intelligence sources, but has presented it to experts and examined it to the extent that journalistic capabilities allow, and among other things found that a person named Abbaspour Beheshtabad exists and is engaged in research work at Iran University of Science and Technology. At the same time, published research by Beheshtabad in international sources does not have a direct connection to nuclear submarine production.

It is said that the University of Science and Technology has contracts with the Ministry of Defense for research work. On the university’s website, “design and construction of heavy diesel engine control systems” and “design of giant electric motors” are introduced as among the achievements of its researchers.

David Albright, a physicist at the American think tank Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, who has been following Iran’s nuclear program for years, tells “Die Welt” that one does not need to be a nuclear scientist to be able to present structures that have applications in this program.

He says “SEPAND” has always collaborated with various universities and appointed researchers to head companies established to advance this organization’s programs.

According to David Albright, from this perspective, the information from Western intelligence agencies is credible, though he cannot confirm or deny its accuracy. He added that a company named Morvarid with the specifications mentioned in this information is not found in Iran’s official sources, but this is not unusual for companies working with the Islamic Republic’s defense and nuclear programs.

Potential Dangers of Iran’s Nuclear Submarines

This physicist is nonetheless confident about the potential dangers arising from the Islamic Republic’s production of nuclear submarines and points to some of them.

One of the important issues in this regard is the difference between nuclear reactors needed in submarines and nuclear reactors for electricity generation. Due to the limited space of submarines, their propulsion reactors must be very small yet powerful and operate with uranium of very high enrichment.

While nuclear power plants for energy supply often use uranium enriched to between three to five percent, submarine reactors typically operate with uranium enriched to between 80 to 90 percent.

Uranium enriched above 80 percent is also used in the explosive cap of nuclear weapons. Also, the production of nuclear submarine propulsion can have stages similar to the construction of plutonium reactors, which is also used in the construction of a type of atomic bomb.

The “Die Welt” analyst believes that strategically as well, the possible construction of nuclear submarines by the Islamic Republic could determine the security situation of the Middle East and Europe.

A nuclear submarine can move underwater for weeks and months and can bring the Islamic Republic’s controversial ballistic missiles even close to very distant targets. Albright says that for this reason, Iran’s nuclear submarine could be a threat to the United States, Europe, and Israel.

Nevertheless, it is still unclear whether the Islamic Republic is actually capable of building nuclear submarines. The American physicist believes this will be very time-consuming and costly, while Iran’s financial resources, including due to sanctions pressure, are very limited.

Old Promises, Unclear Outlook

Evidence also shows that the history of talking about building nuclear submarines in the Islamic Republic goes back at least about a decade, but so far no reliable news of concrete action in this direction has been published.

The Farsi News Agency reported in June 2012, quoting the technical deputy commander of the Islamic Republic’s naval forces, Admiral Abbas Zamini: “We are now in the initial stages of building nuclear submarines.”

This news, which was quickly reflected in many domestic and foreign media outlets, apparently was deleted from the Farsi News Agency output shortly thereafter.

Admiral Abbas Zamini had said that once we have peaceful nuclear technology, we can then put the construction of nuclear submarine propulsion systems on our agenda. Referring to the navy’s ability to design and build light and semi-heavy submarines and repair and maintain heavy submarines, he claimed that this force’s planning to achieve super-heavy nuclear submarines had begun.

In the Islamic Republic, several examples of light and semi-heavy submarines have been produced so far, but this country is far from producing super-heavy submarines where the use of a nuclear reactor would be justified.

Russian news agency Sputnik reported last year, two days after Admiral Khanzadi’s remarks about building nuclear submarines: “Currently, the level of technology demonstrated [in Iran] is far behind many other countries, and a nuclear submarine cannot be expected for Iran in the near future.”

Sputnik, citing Anatoly Sitnikov, former chief of Russian armed forces weapons, reported that his assessment is that Iran could develop the “potential to create nuclear submarines” within 10 to 15 years.

Source: DW