Apparent Decline in Unemployment and Change in Calculation Methodology
The announcement by the Statistical Center of Iran regarding a 1.8 percent decrease in the unemployment rate in summer 2019 has raised doubts among many media outlets and experts. The Statistical Center states that, unlike before, it has calculated the main labor market indicators based on the population aged 15 and above.
The Statistical Center of Iran announced on its website that in compliance with labor law and to achieve greater alignment with international standards, it calculates the country’s main labor market indicators based on the population aged 15 and above. The Statistical Center claims that the unemployment rate in summer 2019 decreased by 1.8 percent; a claim that is not credible under conditions of economic recession.
This appears to be an explanation in response to suspicions of manipulation of unemployment statistics in the first half of 2019 and other independent statistics for this rate in the summer season. Many experts and media outlets regarded the 1.8 percent decrease in unemployment rate amid economic shock and severe recession as fabricated and apparent statistics.
The “National Statistics Gateway” announced in June 2019 that the employed population aged 10 and above in the spring season was 24 million and 382 people, which showed an increase of 321 thousand people compared to the same season of the previous year. The unemployment rate of the active population in this season was announced as 10.8 percent, which was 1.3 percent lower than the same season of the previous year.
In statistics related to the summer season, it was announced that 44.9 percent of the population aged 15 and above were economically active and the unemployment rate is 10.4 percent. The employed population aged 15 and above in this season was announced as 24 million and 751 thousand people, which is 844 thousand more compared to the same season of the previous year.
In this report, it was stated that the service sector had the largest share of employment with 49.1 percent in summer 2019, followed by the industrial sector with 32 percent and the agricultural sector with 19 percent in the subsequent ranks.
The unemployed population includes those who are ready to work but fail to find employment. Given Iran’s economic situation, negative growth rate, and recession caused by sanctions, many of the Statistical Center’s reported rates surprised observers, and some called it a manipulation of reality.
ILNA News Agency writes in this regard: “As the Statistical Center says, the unemployment rate in the population aged 15 to 65 years is calculated; an occurrence that can be viewed as both positive and negative. The negative point is the apparent decline in the unemployment rate, and the positive point is the removal of individuals aged 10 to 15 from the circle of economically active people in the work sector and the proximity to international standards in the field of child labor prevention.”
Based on the latest report of the Statistical Center of Iran, in summer 2019, the highest unemployment rate was recorded in Sistan and Baluchestan Province with 15.2 percent, followed by Yazd Province with an unemployment rate of 15.1 percent and Lorestan Province with an unemployment rate of 14.7 percent.
The latest report from the Statistical Center of Iran also shows that in spring 2019, the active population of men increased compared to spring 2018, but 170 thousand from the active population of women decreased in the labor market. The report stated that men’s share of economic participation in spring 2019 was 65 percent and women’s share was 16.1 percent.
Mahnaz Qadirzadeh, an expert in labor relations and active in women’s affairs, suggested that economic fluctuations and lack of financial resources in production units may have placed women at the forefront of options for workforce adjustment.
Previously, the Tehran Chamber of Commerce announced that 28 million Iranian women are economically inactive.
Source: DW
