Iran’s Economic Growth in 9 Months of 2018 Announced as ‘Negative 3.8 Percent’
Iran’s Statistical Center announced in a report released on Sunday, April 15th, that the country experienced negative economic growth of 3.8 percent during the 9-month period of 2018.
Details of the growth in different sectors of the country’s economy show that agricultural activities declined by 2.1 percent, the industrial sector declined by 7.9 percent, and the services sector grew by 0.6 percent compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.
Economic growth (growth in gross domestic product) refers to the rate of change in the value of products and services produced in a time period compared to a similar time period in the previous year.
Iran’s gross domestic product with and without oil at constant 2011 prices (trillion tomans) Source: Statistical Center of Iran
Recently, the International Monetary Fund also reported that Iran’s economic growth under the influence of American sanctions in 2018 was assessed at negative 3.8 percent and had predicted that Iran’s economic growth in 2019 would be negative 6 percent.
What emerges from the Statistical Center’s report is that the effects of sanctions on Iran’s industrial sector, including oil, have had the greatest impact. Details of statistics from the Ministry of Industry, Mines, and Trade along with assessments from the Statistical Center and the Central Bank of Iran show that sanctions had their greatest impact on the country’s economy in the fall of last year, although one would have needed to wait for the release of the winter quarter report, since the United States implemented its oil sanctions against Iran from mid-fall (November) onward and the main effects should be sought in winter and subsequent data.
Following the imposition of sanctions against Iran, the country’s oil exports collapsed to around one million barrels, whereas in early last year this figure was 2.5 million barrels.
The United States withdrew from the six-power nuclear agreement with Iran on May 8th of last year and implemented two rounds of extensive sanctions against Tehran.
Industrial Sector
Statistics from the Ministry of Industry, Mines, and Trade show that during the 9-month period of last year, particularly in the fall season, besides the decline in Iran’s oil production and exports, several other industrial sectors of the country also faced significant production declines.
Production of industrial products in 2018 (Source: Ministry of Industry, Mines, and Trade)
Economic growth in the industrial sector (including oil) was 0.4 percent in spring of last year, negative 2.8 percent in summer, and negative 7.9 percent in fall.
Exports from Iran’s industrial group (excluding crude oil and gas) also showed a decline of approximately 5.4 percent in December compared to November 2018, with the major portion due to the decline in exports of mineral products (negative 4.9 percent), petrochemicals (negative 4.5 percent), and liquefied gas (negative 65.5 percent).
