Tehran on the Brink of Earthquake Disaster

USGS: Tehran holds the world record for land subsidence… The ground in Tehran is sinking one millimeter per day, which means 36 centimeters per year. Land subsidence in Tehran, due to the weakness of underground layers and soil porosity resulting from groundwater extraction, has currently reduced Tehran’s seismic resistance threshold from 6 Richter to 4.5 Richter, effectively making the city more vulnerable.

Earthquakes in Tehran have a history spanning more than 2,000 years, dating back before the Christian era. Historical records show that the city of Rayy, as the nation’s capital, was repeatedly destroyed by earthquakes. Therefore, Tehran has always been and remains susceptible to earthquakes. However, the date of the last major earthquake, which also affected eastern Tehran, namely the city of Rayy, goes back to March 1830, which is 183 years ago, during which almost all houses and bazaars in Tehran were destroyed and casualties at that time exceeded 45,000 people.

If we refer to the historical earthquakes in the central Alborz region, we find that at least 10 earthquakes with magnitudes up to 7.7 Richter have occurred in this area. According to calculations by the father of Iranian seismology, this cycle for Tehran is 150 years, while approximately 180 years have passed since the last major earthquake. This 30-year delay means that the next earthquake will be considerably more intense and severe. Energy is accumulating in the fault lines, and the next Tehran earthquake, which under normal circumstances could reach up to 7 Richter magnitude, will certainly exceed 7 Richter under these conditions. Millions of deaths and injuries will fill the entire city, which by then will have turned to rubble. Electricity, water, and gas will be cut off for at least 2 years. No roads or pathways will remain, and rescue and relief teams will have virtually no ability to move on the ground.

Officials believe that at that time aerial aid will be provided through rescue helicopter landings in parks, and aid-providing provinces will rush to help—for example, Qom will help the southern parts of the city, Qazvin will aid western Tehran, Semnan will help the east, and so on. However, these are solutions on paper that have never been tested or drilled in normal times to assess their adequacy.

Hospitals, which are among Tehran’s 6,000 decaying buildings, will be completely destroyed at that time, a matter about which the Ministry of Health has constantly warned. Tehran will be shut down and leveled for an extended period. Profiteers will rush to loot the city’s remains, and consider what happens to law enforcement’s ability to control these individuals or protect survivors in this fragmented city? People who have struggled to buy houses in the northern parts of the city, despite repeated warnings about its fault lines, if they survive and their houses collapse, will not be able to use them because they will lack water, electricity, and gas for years.

The issue is: why should all capital be concentrated in Tehran? This is not the case outside Iran. Factories and companies are not all concentrated in one place, and industries are distributed across different cities. In Iran, people must travel to Tehran even for a simple surgery. This is not right. Other cities should be as developed as Tehran. Tehran’s population has reached 14 million people, which is extremely dangerous. The larger the population, the greater the number of casualties.

Notable points regarding a Tehran earthquake:

Due to the city’s 36 percent deteriorated urban fabric, districts 10, 11, 12, and 17 are the most vulnerable areas, and relief assistance will not be possible in these areas.

Due to building collapses, it will be impossible to provide aid to the injured, and in the most optimistic scenario, approximately 6.5 million people will be killed.

Due to the absence of a system for immediate shutdown of water, electricity, and gas systems, widespread fires and devastating explosions will occur.

It appears that government officials, leaders, mayors, and politicians of the country have no intention of seeking solutions or planning and are living in deep slumber. The danger has arrived, and they are only pursuing the looting of the people’s and country’s assets.

An old proverb says: A sleeping person can be awakened, but one who has put themselves to sleep cannot be awakened.