Will the Iran-Israel naval war become public?

For years, the shadow war between Iran and Israel has been ongoing, with intensity and weakness, in various arenas.

The maritime dimension of this war began in May 2019, during which an Iranian tanker in the Red Sea, named "Happiness 1", carrying more than one million barrels of oil, was sunk. On Thursday, May 1, it stopped moving due to the appearance of a suspicious hole in its engine room and subsequent flooding. Due to the emergency situation, the tanker was transferred to the port of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, which was the nearest safe port.

Since then, according to the New York Times, Israel has been involved in the sabotage of at least 10 Iranian-owned ships, most of which were carrying fuel, military supplies or other goods for Syria and Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Israel never acknowledged these attacks, but in April of this year, then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, when asked how he would respond to Iran's attack on an Israeli ship, said: "We will attack Iran "across the region."

In contrast, the Islamic Republic has been blamed for attacks on at least five Israeli ships. In addition, Israel and a number of Western and Arab countries have blamed the Islamic Republic for attacks on ships belonging to other countries, including Japan, Saudi Arabia, Norway, and the United Arab Emirates.

Similarly, the Islamic Republic, like Israel, rejects any attacks on ships and tankers and blames Israel for a series of sabotage and explosions at Iran's nuclear and military facilities, and the assassination of five nuclear scientists, including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Iran and Israel have used similar tactics and weapons in carrying out attacks attributed to them.

Iran has reportedly used landmines, drones, and missiles against Israeli ships, and Israel has used the same weapons. Both countries have tried to minimize casualties on board and to keep the attacks at a level that would not sink the ships.

Attacks attributed to Iran and Israel

One of the most effective attacks attributed to Israel was against the oil tanker "Sabiti", belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company fleet, which took place on Friday, October 9, 2019, 60 miles from the port of Jeddah in the Red Sea. In this attack, which was carried out with two missiles, two holes with a diameter of half a meter and one and a half meters appeared above the waterline of the tanker's hull, which caused an oil leak into the sea. The leak was subsequently contained.

On Saturday, May 10, 2020, a cyberattack that disabled the maritime traffic control computers at the Rajai Port Complex in Bandar Abbas severely disrupted activities at the port terminal. All computers coordinating the movement of ships, trucks, and cargo were down, causing chaos and traffic jams on the waterways and roads leading to the facility. Iran blamed Israel for the attack.

On March 29, 2020, the Israeli-owned Panamanian-flagged Helios Ray, en route from the port of Dammam, Saudi Arabia, to Singapore, was attacked in the Sea of ​​Oman, causing two holes in both sides of the ship, above the waterline. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed Iran for the attack.

On March 20, 2020, a container ship named “Iran Shahrekord” that was heading to the port of Latakia in Syria, was hit by an explosive device in international waters, 92 kilometers off the coast of Israel in the Mediterranean Sea. Part of its hull was damaged and a small fire broke out at the site of the explosion, which was later contained. Iran considered the attack an example of “maritime piracy” and identified Israel as the perpetrator of the attack.

Five days later, on 25 April 1402, an Israeli container ship, the Lori, sailing under the Panamanian flag from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, to India, was attacked by a missile. The damage was minor, and an Israeli official blamed the Revolutionary Guards for the attack.

Twelve days later, on 17 Farvardin 1400, the Iranian ship “Saviz”, which belongs to the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and is under the control of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, was damaged by a sticky mine. The ship has been anchored in the international waters of the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait for several years, and while monitoring ship traffic and gathering intelligence, it supports the Iranian commandos who are sent as armed guards to Iranian ships passing through. Following the attack, the Israeli Kan channel said in its news program that the perpetrator of the attack was trying to deliver a “special message” to the Islamic Republic.

A week later, on 14 April 1402, an Israeli ship, the Hyperion Ray, sailing under the Panamanian flag, was hit by a missile or drone off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. The attack, which came two days after the sabotage at the Natanz facility, caused little damage. Israeli state television blamed Iran.

On July 12, 2021, the Liberian-flagged container ship Tyndall, en route from the Red Sea port of Jeddah to the United Arab Emirates port of Jebel Ali in the Persian Gulf, was targeted by a missile or drone, causing minor damage. The ship had been managed by Zodiac Shipping Company, owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer, for several months before the attack, but was later sold and was owned at the time of the attack by Polar 5, a London-based company with no ties to Israel. Israeli officials said the Islamic Republic was behind the attack.

Nearly four weeks later, on August 27, 2011, the Japanese tanker Mercer Strait, en route from Tanzania to the United Arab Emirates, was targeted by armed drones in the Sea of ​​Oman, killing its Romanian captain and British bodyguard. The ship was sailing under the Liberian flag and was managed by the Israeli Zodiac Shipping Company. Initially, some Iranian state media said the attack was in response to an Israeli airstrike on Dabaa in Syria, but the Islamic Republic later denied involvement. American, British, and Israeli officials officially blamed the Islamic Republic for the attack.

A week after the attack on Mercer Street, on August 5, 2021, the US Central Command, or CENTCOM, announced the results of its investigation by releasing photos of the remains of the explosion, saying that the drone used in the attack was manufactured in Iran.

Following this US investigation, on September 22 of this year, Israel also announced that the drone used to attack the Mercer Strait ship had taken off from "Iranian soil with the approval of the Leader."

Israel's permanent presence in the Red Sea

Recently, Admiral Eli Sharivit, former commander of the Israeli Navy, said in an interview with the Associated Press that Iran's naval activities are at the forefront of Israel's concerns, but the Israeli Navy is capable of attacking at any time if necessary to protect the country's economic and security interests.

He also raised other points in this interview:

• The State of Israel will ensure freedom of navigation for itself throughout the world, and in implementing this work, the factor of distance from Israel is not considered.
• The Israeli Navy has increasingly increased its activities in the Red Sea, deploying frigates and submarines. In the past, its presence in the sea was short-lived, but now its presence is permanent;
• The ships targeted by Iran in the Persian Gulf were linked to Israel but were owned and managed by commercial entities based outside of Israel, and therefore such attacks require international responses.

In the same interview, the former commander of the Israeli Navy said that his country had decided not to transfer fuel from Iran to Lebanon because it saw no benefit in the collapse of Lebanon's economy.

He added that Israel is on high alert regarding the shipment of weapons to Hezbollah by sea, and will intervene if it determines that the shipment is weapons.

Israeli Navy missions

The main missions and threats facing the Israeli Navy are:

– Securing and defending Israel’s territorial waters and “exclusive economic zone” in the Mediterranean Sea and keeping the country’s sea lanes open. The border of this vast area is demarcated with Cyprus but unclear and ambiguous with Lebanon. Israel’s coastline in the Mediterranean Sea is 273 kilometers long, and almost all of Israel’s imports are by sea;

– Protecting Israel’s offshore gas platforms in the Mediterranean Sea, which supply three-quarters of the country’s electricity;

– The naval blockade of the Gaza Strip continues. According to Rear Admiral Eli Sharivit, Hamas’s naval commandos and divers, despite their small numbers, are trained and experienced and pose a potential threat to the Israeli navy;

– Preventing the transfer of weapons by sea from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria;

– Ensuring security and keeping open maritime communication lines in the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea. The Israeli port of Eilat is located in the Gulf of Aqaba, and the length of Israel's coastline in this gulf is about 12 kilometers.

Israeli Navy strength

The Israeli Navy is the smallest of the country's three armed forces. According to Yoel Gazansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, the Israeli Navy is "small and useful," but over-reliance on it is not advisable within the framework of Israel's strategy towards Iran.

The largest surface units of the force are seven patrol ships (corvettes) of the "Sa'ar 5 and 6" type. The force also has eight missile frigates, five submarines (German-made Dolphin class), 45 patrol boats and two supply ships. The personnel capacity of the Israeli Navy is 10,000.

The four Saar 6 corvettes, the force's newest surface units and built in Germany, are equipped with Israeli weapons such as Gabriel anti-ship missiles, Barak 8 air defense systems, and the Iron Dome naval system for close defense. The Saar 6 has an operational range of about 4,500 kilometers.

The three Saar 5s were American ships delivered to Israel in 1994 and 1995. One of these ships, the Hanit, was targeted by a Chinese C-802 shore-to-sea missile (the Noor missile in Iran) in 2006. Four crew members died in the attack.

The force's naval systems are integrated into Israel's air and missile defense networks to enhance coordination between land and naval forces to counter air-based threats.

Israel's Dolphin-class submarines are capable of carrying torpedoes and cruise missiles. The missile has a range of at least 1,500 kilometers. Many believe that these missiles are equipped with nuclear warheads and are designed for "second strike." In other words, these cruise missiles give Israel the ability to launch a nuclear retaliatory strike after an enemy nuclear attack, causing terrible damage to the enemy.

Mutual vulnerability, measured and limited attacks

The Israeli Navy is a small coastal navy and does not have the capacity to expand and maintain a permanent presence in waters beyond the Red Sea, including the Gulf of Aden, the Sea of ​​Oman, and the northwest Indian Ocean in general, to protect or escort ships owned by Israel or managed by Israeli companies.

Given Israel's agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and other Arab countries, known as the Abraham Accords, and Israel's expansion of economic relations with these countries, especially with the Emirates, Israeli ship traffic in the Sea of ​​Oman and the Persian Gulf will undoubtedly increase.

Therefore, the vulnerability of Israeli ships to possible attacks by Iranian naval forces cannot be hidden. The Islamic Republic has remained largely silent due to its inability to respond to the numerous Israeli airstrikes in recent years against the positions of Iranian units or affiliated militias in Syria and the border areas with Iraq. However, in the maritime arena, it has the ability to respond and its hand is open and can inflict damage on Israeli ships.

However, Israel can benefit from a new US initiative to improve shipping security in the region. The US Fifth Fleet recently formed a combat force called Task Force 59 to secure shipping lanes in the Gulf of Oman and surrounding waters and deter potential attacks on ships and tankers.

This force is intended to operate in three dimensions: surface, subsurface, and air, and will use drones, remotely piloted unmanned ships, and guided underwater unmanned vehicles to do so.

Previously, in September 2019, due to the increase in attacks on ships and tankers in the region, the United States had formed an organization called the "International Maritime Security Structure" with membership of eight countries, including Britain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Australia, with the aim of securing communication lines in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of ​​Oman, the Gulf of Aden, and the southern Red Sea.

Given its extensive support for Hezbollah and the Assad regime, the Islamic Republic has three ways to support and meet their logistical needs. Land and air routes are very vulnerable, as Israel has repeatedly demonstrated with its numerous airstrikes. Therefore, the sea route is more practical and better than other routes, given the volume and weight of goods that can be transported by ship. However, Iranian ships and tankers in the Red Sea and the eastern Mediterranean are vulnerable, as Israel has shown in the past.

In this regard, retired Israeli Navy Admiral Shaul Chorev said: "Attacking Iranian tankers will neither stop this country from enriching itself nor reduce its aid to Hezbollah and other proxy groups... A naval war will also be very costly for us, especially in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, which are beyond the operational range of the Israeli Navy and its ability to protect Israeli ships in this area."

Therefore, both countries have so far tried to maintain moderation in their attacks, and the degree of attacks should not be such that irreparable damage is caused to ships and tankers or that an oil spill leads to an environmental disaster.

Open war?

The continuation of maritime confrontations between Iran and Israel could, knowingly or unknowingly, or due to incorrect assessments, emerge from the shadows and turn into an open conflict and full-scale war.

This shadow war is rooted in a wide range of differences and hostility between the Islamic Republic and the United States, as well as with Israel, which is tied to acute issues, including the Islamic Republic's nuclear and missile programs and its "subversive and destabilizing" activities in the region.

Israel considers the revival of the JCPOA or reaching another agreement to be in the interest of Iran and the P5+1 countries, and it wants to completely halt Iran's nuclear program, control the country's missile programs, and change the Islamic Republic's behavior in the region. As high-ranking Israeli officials have repeatedly warned, the country will directly launch military operations against Iran if necessary.

The Biden administration appears to be reluctant to take this possible Israeli action, trying to deter the country from military attacks and generally unwilling to get involved in another war in the Middle East. However, if war between Iran and Israel were to break out, Washington would very likely find itself obligated to support Israel under the 2014 U.S.-Israel Strategic Partnership Act, which would result in a full-scale war.

Such a war, if it occurs, would engulf all countries in the region and create something more than a disaster.

Source: Radio Farda