Major disaster alert in Tehran as 2 earthquakes hit south of Tehran

The occurrence of two earthquakes in southern Tehran raised the alarm of a major disaster in Tehran.

This morning, Friday, March 14, two earthquakes occurred near Varamin and the Javadabad area in southern Tehran at depths of 8 and 9 kilometers.

An earthquake measuring 3.3 on the Richter scale was recorded at 2:35 a.m., 13 km from Javadabad, 24 km from Varamin, and 24 km from Peshva. Another earthquake measuring 3 on the Richter scale was recorded at 3:24 a.m., 10 km from Javadabad, 21 km from Varamin, and 22 km from Peshva.

The powerful quake has raised concerns about the possibility of another earthquake in the capital, exacerbated by the city's deteriorating infrastructure, dense population, and weak buildings. While there were no reports of damage, it could be a warning sign of a larger quake.

Since Tehran is located on several active faults, substandard construction, dilapidated buildings, and poor crisis management also increase the severity of potential earthquake hazards in the city. According to geological reports, among the main and minor faults in Tehran, the Mosha, North Tehran, Parchin, Kahrizak, and Rey faults are considered the most important and dangerous faults.

After the two earthquakes occurred this morning, Ali Nasiri, head of the Tehran Disaster Prevention and Management Organization, announced: "The fault north of Tehran can cause high-power earthquakes, and due to the proximity of this fault to the worn-out structure, its risk is greater. The worst-case scenario for Tehran is an earthquake of magnitude 6.7, which we hope will never happen."

Seyyed Mohammad Aghamiri, head of the Tehran City Council's Civil Engineering Committee, also stated: "There are 68 bridges in Tehran that do not have the necessary safety, and in the event of an earthquake, their columns will break. Since an earthquake of magnitude 7 is certain to occur in Tehran, roads will be blocked after the earthquake and debris removal trucks will not be able to travel."

Referring to the deadly earthquake in Turkey that occurred in February 2023, he said: "In that incident, the cities of Istanbul and Ankara were able to manage the earthquake, but if an earthquake occurs in Tehran, the command center will be in trouble. The parliament should allocate a national budget to make Tehran's infrastructure earthquake-resistant."

Mehdi Babaei, head of the Tehran City Council Safety Committee, also expressed concern about the existence of 4,000 unstable structures in Tehran and stated: "The capital needs 500 emergency water tanks to deal with an earthquake, but so far only 50 tanks have been installed."

Concerns grow to terrifying proportions when at least 29 hospitals are built on major faults that not only have no role in crisis management in the event of an earthquake, but will themselves become the center of the crisis.

Geological experts have repeatedly warned that, based on the results of a study, the probability of a severe earthquake occurring in Tehran between 1403 and 1409 is very high and that officials must take preventive measures before it occurs; however, government officials and city managers expressed hope that an earthquake will not occur in Tehran.

"Mehdi Zare," a professor of seismology, also expressed concern about the occurrence of an earthquake in Tehran, saying: "Various studies on the faults in the north, center, and south of Tehran show that each of these faults has the potential to cause a major earthquake, even more than 7. A major earthquake in Tehran is an inevitable reality that will happen sooner or later; but poor public awareness, mismanagement, economic interests of certain groups, and lack of attention from some officials have caused this issue not to be seriously put on the agenda. To reduce earthquake risks in Tehran, a well-written program with a practical and scientific approach must be implemented."

He also warned that if the aforementioned measures are not taken, in the event of an earthquake in Tehran, we will face a major crisis in the humanitarian, economic, and social fields, the compensation for which will take years.

Experts, by simulating earthquakes on simulated models, estimated the number of deaths in a major earthquake in Tehran at more than 50,000 and hundreds of thousands of injuries. They estimated that in an earthquake of magnitude 7.0, at least 30 percent of dilapidated buildings would be completely destroyed.