Diplomatic pressure increases, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's Islamic Consultative Assembly is seeking to exert diplomatic pressure on the international community by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The Islamic Consultative Assembly approved the plan to close the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, June 22, corresponding to July 1. The implementation of this plan is subject to the final approval of the Supreme National Security Council, chaired by Iranian President Masoud Pezzekian, but it is not yet clear whether this measure will be implemented.

In fact, Iran intends to exert diplomatic pressure and play a psychological game on the international community by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Israeli and American attacks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who traveled to Istanbul, responded to the question, "How likely is it that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed?" by saying, "We have all options on the table and will use all legitimate means to defend ourselves."

In response to Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, US Vice President JD Vance said in a statement: "Iran's attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would be 'suicide' for this country."

Reports of increased ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that ships are afraid of the closure of the strait and are seeking to quickly exit the Strait of Hormuz, and the traffic passing through the strait has increased and confirmed concerns about its closure. Currently, about 50 large oil tankers are trying to exit the strait.

The CEO of Shell, one of the world's oil giants, had previously stated about the impact of the Iran-Israel war: "We are warning about the possible widespread impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a major shock to the oil markets. The cost of insurance for ships has increased by 2.5 times and longer and more expensive routes have been substituted. This situation has led to an increase in oil prices."

The US airstrikes on the nuclear sites of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on Sunday morning have increased concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the extension of the war to the Persian Gulf. The closure of the Strait, which did not seem likely, has become a possible option with the US entering the Israeli war against Iran, and concerns about the closure of the Strait have also been raised. These concerns have also affected the countries of the region, especially the countries bordering the Persian Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz, bordered by Iran to the north and the UAE and Oman to the south, carries about 20 percent of the world's oil supply. Kepler, a ship-tracking company, said in a report that more than 50 large tankers are currently trying to exit the Strait of Hormuz. The oil industry also predicts that the strait will be closed in the future.

According to some experts, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices will increase sharply and will cross the $90 mark, in which case the country will have to wait for the release of strategic oil resources from the United States and China to control the market. China and the United States can provide up to two million barrels of strategic reserves.

Russia and Saudi Arabia, as members of OPEC+, have also announced that their oil reserves are sufficient to compensate for oil supply. The announcement of these countries' readiness to supply oil means that if there is a disruption in Iran's oil supply, other countries will replace them. But the point is that with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf countries will also be involved in the Israeli-Iranian war, and this will lead to a larger war.

The question is whether Iran can easily close the great Strait of Hormuz and how will it be able to close it? And whether the closure of this strait will bring war to the Persian Gulf? In answer to these questions, it can be said that the American aircraft carrier "Vinson" was stationed 80 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz and the "Nimitz" was immediately dispatched from the China Sea to the Persian Gulf in order to further stabilize the Vinson and strengthen the American presence.

Now Iran has also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, while closing this strait is not an easy task at all. Closing this strait can be done in several ways: 1. Deploying naval mines 2. Using fast boats and shore-to-sea missiles 3. Physically occupying key points in the strait 4. Legally blocking or officially warning ships.

But the problem is that doing this is not easy, because the traffic of oil ships, etc., is not available to Iran at the bottom of Hormuz Island, and it passes through waters close to Oman, which are beyond Iran's control. Iran's only trump card for closing the Strait of Hormuz is the three islands, because 100 kilometers west of the Strait of Hormuz, ships have to pass exactly between the islands of Qeshm, Tunb, and Abu Musa, which are under Iranian control, to enter and exit.

For this reason, the three Iranian islands are of great strategic importance, and the UAE is also seeking to return these islands. Given this information, Iran can only stop ship traffic and so-called close the Strait of Hormuz by controlling the return routes of ships and the 4 methods mentioned, which will have very serious consequences.

As a result of the above information, it can be said that on average, approximately 82 ships per day, i.e. about 17 million barrels of oil and liquefied gas, equivalent to 20 percent of the world's total oil, leave this region, which belongs to the exports of all the countries of the Persian Gulf, including Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to dozens of countries on all continents of the world, and the closure of this strait will directly and quickly affect the energy of the entire world. As a result, the closure of the strait will immediately cause serious global economic consequences and will lead to a direct military conflict with the United States, NATO and neighboring exporting countries. For this reason, closing the Strait of Hormuz will be easy in words, but very difficult in practice.

Now the question is, with all these consequences, will Iran implement the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?