IRGC and Basij conduct drills to prevent possible uprising in Tehran

The spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the holding of a massive exercise to prevent a possible uprising in Tehran.

The Revolutionary Guards have organized a drill involving 110,000 Basij soldiers for Friday, January 11. According to a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards, the drill is designed to prepare for any potential threat to the capital. But the question is, what threat is Tehran facing that is planning such a large-scale exercise?

Hypotheses suggest that there are only two threats to this possible uprising: a foreign ground attack, a domestic armed group, or an uprising of the people of Tehran against the government. Studies and published evidence show that the probability of a foreign ground attack on Tehran is zero because the United States and Israel do not currently have any threat, preparation, or facilities for such an attack.

Some experts stated that the number of US military forces in the region is less than 50,000, and that Israel is geographically unable to attack within 2 kilometers of the border, while no domestic armed group has the capacity to attack Tehran.

When, according to published statements, all possibilities for internal and external attack are ruled out, the only option could be to hold such a maneuver for a popular uprising. Preparing for this exercise with 110,000 Basij could mean that the government and the Revolutionary Guard are worried about a serious threat.

In addition, the exercise coincides with political changes in the United States, including the inauguration of Donald Trump and his return to the White House, which has raised great concerns for the Islamic Republic. The Revolutionary Guard Corps, as responsible for the security of Tehran and sensitive government centers, is also concerned that in the event of foreign attacks, domestic protests will also occur, which could lead to the fall of the government.

The sudden fall of the Assad government in Syria has terrified and heightened the Islamic Republic's concerns. Since people have been taking to the streets to express their anger and dissatisfaction with the government for over two years, the government fears that, given the anger of the Iranian people and the widespread protests, they will suffer the same fate as Bashar al-Assad's government with even the slightest foreign attack.

The IRGC spokesman also referred to this threat as "man-made," which is clearly referring to a popular uprising, because in the past two months, the IRGC has also held a similar maneuver to the upcoming one around Tehran, which focused on suppressing urban protests.

The upcoming exercise reflects the government's fear and concern about a popular uprising. While holding an exercise with such a large number of troops is an attempt to show power to the people and boost the morale of the government forces, the reality is that the Islamic Republic is not afraid of borders, but of every single street in Tehran and other cities in Iran.