Warning of a Second War, or the Islamic Republic's Last Gambling at the People's Expense

The warning of a second war from the Khamenei family has turned it into the Islamic Republic's latest gamble, but at the expense of the people.

Iran today finds itself in a situation where social fatigue and apathy have reached a dangerous level. The livelihood crisis, repeated blackouts, and water shortages have put society in a situation where the same fear of war as before may no longer exist. This public apathy could become a tool in the hands of the government to move more recklessly towards war. While the ability of civil resistance to prevent destructive decisions is minimized, the Islamic Republic sees the crisis as an opportunity for survival, but the cost will be paid for from the pockets of the Iranian people.

This time, the alarm bells are being sounded not from Western analysts or Israeli media, but from within Khamenei's household. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former commander of the IRGC and a top advisor to the Islamic Republic's leader, made an unprecedented statement: "It is possible that another war will break out between the Islamic Republic and Israel, but after that there may be no more war."

Such vague statements are not made without reason in the structure of the Islamic Republic. These statements are more like a political message and a green light to begin the process of military, diplomatic, and media preparations for entering a new phase of the crisis, rather than a military analysis.

A look at the history of this system shows that crisis is not only a threat, but also a vital opportunity for its survival. In the 1960s, the Iran-Iraq war became a pretext for consolidating the authority of the jurist and the widespread suppression of dissent. In the following years, external tensions increased each time, helping to consolidate domestic power. From the nuclear program to its presence in Syria and Lebanon, the Islamic Republic has consumed external crises like oxygen to cover up its structural weakness.

If a new conflict breaks out between the Islamic Republic and Israel, the main burden will be on the shoulders of the people. Contrary to official claims about “symmetrical warfare,” Israel is far superior in terms of technology and military power. This time, the potential war will not only resemble a short 12-day conflict, but could lead to full-scale and devastating attacks.

Some in society may be happy that the government is being hit and even possibly collapsing, but the cost of this collapse will not be free for the people. Iran not only has no safe haven, but it is also deprived of a civil defense and national crisis management program. In such circumstances, the government will call every small protest “treason” and will take its revenge on its citizens until the last moment, before it itself is thrown into the dustbin of history.