Khamenei Goes Into Hiding, Legend of Authority Collapses

Khamenei’s disappearance is a sign of the collapse of the legend of authority at the highest level of the velayat-e faqih system.

In an unprecedented event that has shaken the brittle and decayed bones of velayat-e faqih rule, Ali Khamenei, leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, for the first time in 37 years abstained from attending the annual ceremony of the air force, a ceremony that has always been a symbol of authority, unquestioning presence, and military allegiance to the system.

This historic absence occurred while no official and acceptable explanation was provided by the government, and global media outlets refer to it as a sign of “internal crisis” and “fear of external threats.” This deadly silence of the government in the face of Khamenei’s absence has found its reflection in international media as well, prompting experts and analysts to investigate the true condition of Khamenei and the Islamic Republic system.

According to foreign media reports, Khamenei, for the first time since assuming the position of leadership in 1989, did not attend the annual meeting of the commanders of Iran’s air force. This ceremony, held to commemorate the anniversary of air force officers’ allegiance to Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, has for years been a symbol of system cohesion and the direct authority of leadership even during wars and domestic crises like the coronavirus pandemic.

Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, attended the ceremony in his absence, which is a clear sign of trembling in the power structure and the theatrical delegation of responsibilities to other figures. Furthermore, the day-to-day affairs of the Islamic Republic have been placed in the hands of “Masoud Khamenei,” the 53-year-old son of Ali Khamenei, who, according to reports, has become the main communication channel with the executive branch.

It should be noted that no official institution of the Islamic Republic has provided a precise and reliable explanation for Khamenei’s absence, and this very silence has intensified an atmosphere of hasty speculation:

1. Publication of reports about Khamenei being transferred to an underground shelter in Tehran due to fear of a possible American attack, a claim that media outlets have echoed.
2. Media reaction to his absence even from formal Iranian religious events, such as Muharram mourning ceremonies, during periods of previous crises and wars, which has precedent. Although the government is trying to provide no public explanation on these matters.
3. Independent analysts have spoken of the possibility of strengthening the role of military institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or a succession crisis, although these too are unofficial.

International reactions and media coverage of Khamenei’s absence from the air force ceremony coincide with severe suppression of protests within Iran. Credible reports have also been released of the arrest of prominent reformist activists and widespread suppression of protesters:

• Iranian security agencies have arrested several prominent reformists, including Azar Mansouri, Ibrahim Asgarzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh.
• Independent figures indicate thousands of victims from protest crackdowns, figures far higher than the government’s official numbers.
• On the other hand, in the path of tension with America, Iranian missiles in the region and provocative military behaviors have continued, and America has also strengthened its military presence in the Middle East.

While Iranian state media try to maintain an image of strength, America has also increased pressure by warning American citizens to leave Iran and threatening serious consequences if there is no nuclear agreement.

Even indirect negotiations in Oman, which could have been an opportunity to reduce tensions, have been left without results, and the American side has called for expanding the scope of negotiations to include the missile program and suppression of protests.

This event cannot be seen merely as a simple absence from a ceremony. The silence, lack of official explanation, and coincidence with internal and external pressures paint a dark picture of the true state of the system and its leadership:

• A sign of internal legitimacy crisis;
• A possible rift between power institutions and traditional leadership;
• And a display of hidden weakness in the face of external threats.

Khamenei, who for years had presented himself as a united, authoritative, and unrivaled figure, now does not even want to be present at a military ceremony, and this very matter is the most eloquent symbol of the government’s loss of credibility.