Ibrahim Raisi: From Khavaran Cemetery to Pasteur Street

The necessity of Raisi’s candidacy in the presidential election had become an important question for the system’s factions and their electoral alignment for months beforehand. A question whose answer seemed simple took longer than expected due to reasons beyond what was anticipated.

In the Islamic Republic, main candidates for entering the electoral campaign must obtain “permission” from Khamenei. Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who did not follow this rule, were disqualified by the Guardian Council.

After considerable back-and-forth, on the sixth of Ordibehesht, Telegram channels reported that Raisi obtained “permission” to enter the elections at Khamenei’s iftar gathering and is the system’s main candidate. Khamenei not only abandoned the slogan of forming a young government but also left Raisi’s mission in the judiciary incomplete. He selects heads of the judiciary for two five-year terms, while Raisi has completed three years of his first term.

With the possibility of Raisi’s participation in the elections becoming more concrete, speculation began about Alireza Aref and Mohseni-Eje as his potential successors.

Although some military and security figures, emphasizing rivals’ conspiracy to burn Raisi in competition over Khamenei’s succession, warned him against entering the electoral arena, his decision to enter the campaign shows that he considers passage through the “Pasteur” path necessary for assuming the leadership position. Otherwise, he would not accept the risk of competing again in elections and engaging with the economic and political problems the country faces.

Raisi was not a personal decision-maker. The fragmentation of votes among dominant faction candidates made them fear losing the election results. After consultations, they concluded that to achieve consensus, eliminate the rival completely, and obtain the presidency of all three branches and appoint Khamenei’s preferred successor, they needed to take the risk on Raisi. Of course, Raisi’s success depends on the Guardian Council’s performance, eliminating his rivals, and engineering votes.

The removal of Zarif and Hassan Khomeini by Khamenei, sexual harassment complaints against Mohsen Hashemi, the Guardian Council’s groundwork for removing Saeed Mohammad and Ahmadinejad and other potential rivals of Raisi, paving the way for him to reach “Pasteur” position.

However, it should be noted that if Raisi is elected president, he will face unforeseen problems during foreign trips. The head of the judiciary and the Supreme Leader need not travel to Europe and America, but the president’s deprivation of such travels is worth considering.

Let us examine what these problems are and what challenges the system and Raisi face.

Raisi and International Challenges

Although Raisi previously attended the United Nations Human Rights Session in Geneva, both his current circumstances have changed and the international legal system differs from before.

Unfortunately, Raisi’s name does not appear in any European Union sanctions, even human rights sanctions! However, the U.S. Treasury Department in November 2019 added Raisi’s name and eight others to its sanctions list, referring to them as close associates of Khamenei.

In the Treasury Department’s statement regarding Raisi, it states that he is “one of Ayatollah Khamenei’s favored figures. He served in senior positions in the judicial system for approximately three decades. Ibrahim Raisi’s name is linked to human rights violations in the judicial system and in particular to membership in the execution panel during the executions of 1988, known as the ‘Death Commission.’ With his presence in the judicial system, judicial processes criticized by human rights activists, including harsh punishments, unlawful arrests, torture and mistreatment, continued in the same manner as before.”

It is necessary to note that U.S. government sanctions can only affect Raisi’s travel or investment but do not create legal challenges for him.

This type of sanctions can be lifted or completely ignored due to its political nature with one political decision.

For example, in September 2011, after Ali Akbar Salehi, Fereydoon Abbasi, and Rostam Qasemi received promotions and were appointed as Foreign Minister, head of the Atomic Energy Organization, and Oil Minister respectively, their sanctions were lifted. These three had previously been prohibited from traveling to countries and opening bank accounts under Security Council resolutions and European Union sanctions. Zarif’s U.S. sanctions also did not create major problems for him.

Legal Problem and Its Consequences

Raisi faces not only political sanctions; he will become embroiled in a major legal problem in the coming months, and ignoring or circumventing it has many consequences. The matter goes back one and a half years.

On November 9, 2019, Hamid Noori, a prosecutor at Gohardasht Prison, was arrested at the order of the Stockholm prosecutor and based on the principle of “universal jurisdiction” on charges of participation in mass killings in this prison in the summer of 1988.

On August 10, 2021, Hamid Noori’s trial in Stockholm begins and will continue until March 2022. His potential conviction in this court, which has over 100 plaintiffs and witnesses, affects Raisi’s legal position internationally.

A prison prosecutor is legally a representative of the prosecutor in the prison. Hamid Noori held the position of Raisi’s assistant, who at that time was deputy prosecutor of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran.

The trial date coincides with the implementation of the presidential decree by Khamenei and the execution of the oath ceremony in the Islamic Consultative Assembly.

Before Hamid Noori’s arrest in Stockholm, the question was whether there was a possibility of legal prosecution of Raisi if he traveled abroad.

Given the upcoming trial, it seems unlikely that any European government would accept the risk of the notoriety of inviting Raisi. Moreover, if he wishes to participate in the United Nations General Assembly or in international bodies, both the inviting and hosting body would face legal consequences, and any country that accepts him would face consequences.

* Articles published on the “Opinion” page do not necessarily reflect the views of DW Farsi.

Source: DW