Experts Express Serious Concern Over Resurgence of Coronavirus Outbreak in Iran

In recent days, the trend of coronavirus infection in Iran has increased, and the number of identified cases has exceeded the 103,000 mark. Experts warn that the recent trend could be concerning and people should not consider coronavirus to be over.

In Iran, the number of citizens who tested positive for COVID-19 disease until mid-Farvardin was very high and sometimes exceeded 3,000 people per day.

This trend showed a declining trajectory with fluctuations until April 2, 2020 (Ordibehesht 13), when the Ministry of Health announced 802 new cases of coronavirus, which was the lowest figure at that time.

The situation has changed again in recent days. According to Kianush Jahanpour, spokesman for the Ministry of Health, in the 24 hours until noon on Thursday, April 8, 2020 (Ordibehesht 18), “based on definitive diagnostic criteria,” 1,485 new COVID-19 patients were identified in Iran.

Accordingly, based on the official statistics of the Ministry of Health, so far 103,135 people in Iran have been definitively infected with coronavirus. In the past 24 hours, 68 more people died from coronavirus infection, and the number of COVID-19 deaths in Iran has reached 6,486 people.

“Concerns Remain”

Masoud Yunesian, a faculty member at Tehran University of Medical Sciences, told the IRNA news agency that it is still too early to judge the recent changes, but “concern about a possible new wave of disease outbreak in the country remains ongoing.”

When asked whether the upward trend in recent days is related to more tracing or indicates a second wave of coronavirus spread, he said: “I do not have sufficient information in this regard. The officials of the national headquarters can better judge this matter considering the trend of the number of tests being conducted.”

Based on the statistics released daily by the Ministry of Health, the number of coronavirus diagnostic tests in Iran has fluctuated between 9,000 to 12,000 over the past month, and the number of tests only increased to about 13,500 cases between Wednesday and Thursday.

Coronavirus Epidemic is Not Over

Ahmad Mehri, a member of Iran’s Epidemiology Society, believes that the measures taken so far, such as restrictions, social distancing, and prevention-based policies based on screening and disease detection, only “partially managed the relative coronavirus epidemic,” and therefore people should not consider the coronavirus period to be “over.”

This expert warned about the reduction of restrictions and told the Farsnews agency: “The virology and epidemiology community constantly acknowledge that our knowledge about this mysterious coronavirus virus is less than our ignorance. This in itself is the most serious and concerning issue that should not be overlooked. Because the opening of public places and the reduction of restrictions after the relative calm of coronavirus in Iran has created the fear that subsequent peaks of the coronavirus epidemic would be more concerning.”

He said that if due to reduced restrictions, a “disease cluster” in a city suddenly causes an “explosive outbreak,” which hospital and medical structure would be able to handle the massive influx of patients and those affected?

The member of Iran’s Epidemiology Society warned that what has been achieved so far in dealing with the new coronavirus “has been its relative management, even based on official statistics,” but people should understand that the epidemic is still ongoing and “the country’s epidemiology community is deeply concerned about subsequent peaks.”

Doubt About Official Coronavirus Statistics

The official statistics from the Ministry of Health regarding the number of COVID-19 patients and victims face serious doubts from many experts and some local officials, including members of the Tehran City Council.

Members of this council, based on statistics of shrouds and burials in the capital’s main cemeteries in Esfand and Farvardin months and comparing them with statistics from a similar previous period, believe that the number of deaths suspected of coronavirus infection in these two months in Tehran was between 4,600 to 5,600 people.

Nahid Khodakaram, a member of the Tehran City Council who raised these figures on April 17, 2020 (Farvardin 27), said that approximately 70 to over 100 of those buried daily in Tehran are probable COVID-19 patients.

Verifying these statistics is not simple for various reasons, such as the lack of testing of those suspected of coronavirus infection. Moreover, an average of 11,000 coronavirus diagnostic tests daily in a country with a population of 82 million cannot provide a clear picture of COVID-19 prevalence.

The epidemiology community, expressing concern about subsequent coronavirus peaks, warns the public not to consider the coronavirus crisis to be over.

Source: DW