Michael Rubin: Iran Will Regret Any Deal It Signs With China
Michael Rubin, a recognized expert on Iran affairs and prominent researcher at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, says the reported conditions of a strategic agreement between Iran and China pose a “significant danger” to Ali Khamenei and his subordinates.
Rubin wrote in an analytical piece published Monday in the National Interest magazine: “Any agreement between the Iranian government and China that allows for long-term lease of Iranian territory will provoke the public anger of the Iranian people and a large portion of that country’s political spectrum.”
According to Mr. Rubin, “Currently, not only ordinary Iranians but also Iranian officials have concerns about whether the benefits of a deal with China outweigh its dangers to Iran’s national sovereignty.”
He writes: “Whenever the Iranian government, to deal with its dissatisfaction with a previous power, allies with and draws closer to a new power, the result is bad for the Iranian people. Perhaps Khamenei doesn’t see this issue, but ordinary Iranians [do.]”
Rubin also warns about the negative consequences of the proposed agreement for Iran if it is rushed into signing.
Rubin writes: “If Khamenei and the Iranian president Hassan Rouhani finalize a long-term agreement with China before Khamenei’s death—a death that may be accompanied by a succession struggle, very widespread anti-regime protests, and even a shift in orientation by many Iranians toward the West—then a more aggressive Beijing could simultaneously attempt to assert its interests militarily or, using debt traps, weaken the reconstruction of post-Khamenei Iran.” Rubin, for his part, does not rule out the possibility of “internal interference” by China “in Iran.”
Rubin writes that such a scenario “may be a headache for a future American government, but for the Iranian people—people who wish to be free and left to their own devices—it will be another catastrophe.” Rubin emphasizes that “any agreement with China will cause Iran regret in the long term.”
Source: Voice of America
