Ebrahim Raisi; From Khavaran Cemetery to Pastor Street

The necessity of a presidential candidacy had long been an important question for the factions of the regime and their electoral arrangements. A question whose answer seemed simple took longer than expected for a number of reasons.

In the Islamic Republic, the main candidates must obtain “permission” from Khamenei to enter the electoral campaign. Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad, who did not follow this rule, were disqualified by the Guardian Council.

After much wrangling, on May 26, Telegram channels announced that Raisi had received “permission” to enter the elections at Khamenei’s iftar party and was the regime’s main candidate. Khamenei not only violated the slogan of forming a young government, but also left Raisi’s mission in the judiciary unfinished. He appoints the heads of the judiciary for two five-year terms, while Raisi has served three years of his first term.

As the possibility of Raisi's participation in the elections became stronger, speculation began about Alireza Aarafi and Mohseni-Ejei as his possible successors.

Although a number of military and security figures warned him against entering the election arena, emphasizing the conspiracy of rivals to burn Raisi in the race to succeed Khamenei, his decision to enter the election campaign shows that he has recognized that going through the "Pastor" path is necessary to ascend to the leadership position. Otherwise, he would not have accepted the risk of participating in the election again and getting involved in the back-breaking economic and political problems that the country is facing.

Raisi was not the decision-maker himself. The split in the votes among the candidates of the dominant faction made them think that they might lose the election. After consulting, they concluded that in order to reach a consensus and complete the work of the opponent, and to gain the presidency of all three branches and install the desired successor to Khamenei, it was necessary to take a risk on Raisi. Of course, Raisi's success depends on the performance of the Guardian Council, the elimination of his rivals, and vote engineering.

Khamenei's removal of Zarif and Hassan Khomeini, the sexual complaint against Mohsen Hashemi, and the preparation of the Guardian Council to eliminate Saeed Mohammad and Ahmadinejad and other possible competitors of Raisi are paving the way for him to reach "Pastor."

However, it should be noted that if Raisi is elected president, he will face unforeseen problems in foreign trips. The head of the judiciary and the Supreme Leader do not need to travel to Europe and America, but the president's exclusion from such trips is cause for concern.

Let's examine what these problems are and what challenges the system and Raisi face.

Raisi and international challenges

Although Raisi has previously attended the United Nations Human Rights Summit in Geneva, Raisi's circumstances are different now, and the international legal system is different from before.

Unfortunately, Raisi's name is not included in any of the European Union's sanctions, not even its human rights sanctions! However, in November 2019, the US Treasury Department added Raisi and eight other individuals to its sanctions list, naming them as close associates of Khamenei.

The Treasury Department statement on Raisi said that he was “a favorite of Ayatollah Khamenei. He held high positions in the judiciary for nearly three decades. Ebrahim Raisi’s name is linked to human rights violations in the judiciary, and in particular to his membership in the judicial commission of the 1988 executions, known as the Death Panel. With his presence in the judiciary, judicial processes criticized by human rights activists, including cruel punishments, illegal detentions, torture, and ill-treatment, continued as before.”

It is important to note that the US government's sanctions can only affect Raisi's travel or investments, but do not pose a legal challenge to him.

Due to its political nature, this type of sanction can be canceled by a political decision or ignored altogether.

For example, in October 2011, after Ali Akbar Salehi, Fereydoun Abbasi, and Rostam Ghasemi were promoted to foreign minister, head of the Atomic Energy Organization, and oil minister, their sanctions were lifted. The three had previously been banned from traveling to other countries and from opening bank accounts under Security Council resolutions and European Union sanctions. The US sanctions on Zarif did not pose much of a problem for him either.

Legal problem and its consequences

Raisi is not only facing political sanctions, he will be embroiled in a major legal problem in the coming months that will have far-reaching consequences if ignored or circumvented. The issue dates back a year and a half.

On November 9, 2019, Hamid Nouri, the warden of Gohardasht Prison, was arrested by order of the Stockholm prosecutor and based on the principle of "universal jurisdiction" on charges of participating in mass killings in this prison in the summer of 1988.

Hamid Nouri's trial will begin in Stockholm on August 10, 2021, and will continue until March 2022. His possible conviction in this trial, which has over 100 plaintiffs and witnesses, will affect Raisi's legal position internationally.

The assistant prosecutor supervising the prison is the legal representative of the prosecutor in prison. Hamid Nouri held the position of assistant to Raisi, who at the time was the deputy prosecutor of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran.

The start date of the trial coincides with Khamenei's enactment of the presidential decree and the inauguration ceremony in the Islamic Consultative Assembly.

Before Hamid Nouri was arrested in Stockholm, the question was whether it was possible to prosecute Raisi if he was abroad.

Given the upcoming court case, it seems unlikely that any European government would risk the notoriety of inviting a president. Moreover, if he were to attend a UN summit or international forum, both the inviting and hosting institutions would face legal consequences, as would the country that hosted him.

* The content published on the "Opinion" page does not necessarily reflect the views of Deutsche Welle Persian.

Source: DW