In what areas can Iran harm the United States and its allies?

A German newspaper has listed areas at risk of attack by Iranian forces or pro-Islamic Republic militias, including Iranian facilities in Europe and the United States.

On Sunday, January 5, the newspaper "Die Welt" published a comprehensive article about the Islamic Republic's threats against the United States and where Iranian forces or groups supported by the Islamic Republic could strike the United States and its allies.

The article was written by four journalists (Boehmer, Lutz, Virgin, and Hackensberger) and began with statements from the Iranian President.

Hassan Rouhani said on Friday that the killing of Qassem Soleimani had made Iran more determined in the fight against "American imperialism."

The article continues by emphasizing that the Islamic Republic will not act alone, but will increasingly send its pro-Iranian forces to launch armed operations against the United States in retaliation.

The authors of the article believe that so far no military power has been able to "turn its weakness into strength" like the Islamic Republic.

In this regard, reference is made to the "weakening of the Iranian army due to sanctions" and that Iran possesses weapons that were mainly manufactured between the 1960s and 1980s: "Even the Iranian Air Force does not have access to aircraft spare parts."

Four German journalists emphasize that the IRGC forces are well-trained, but their equipment is not up to par.

That's why Iran has invested in two things: missiles and militia groups in other countries: "Missiles are a relatively cheap means of inflicting damage and deterrence over a large area."

They also emphasize that the Islamic Republic has been able to gain widespread influence in various countries, including Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, through its forces.

"Iran can create insecurity in the countries of the region and at the same time prevent the crisis from entering its borders. In this way, Iran is able to strike at its enemies and prevent a counterattack," because the attacks were carried out by the militia forces of those countries, not Iran.

Iraq

The Die Welt article refers to the attacks by Iranian supporters on the Green Zone, the US embassy in Baghdad, and the rocket launch at the Al-Bilad base on Saturday.

According to Iraqi sources, two missiles were fired at the Al-Bilad air base, 80 kilometers north of Baghdad, where American experts are stationed to train Iraqi soldiers.

According to the authors of the article, these are just two examples of the capabilities of Iranian-backed groups, and the United States has 5,200 troops and military experts in Iraq, in addition to its two representative offices, and is stationed in numerous military bases. Each of these could be a target for militant groups that are “just waiting for a signal from Iran” and “have no qualms about turning Iraq into a battlefield.”

Lebanon and Israel

The Die Welt article mentioned targets in Israel and Lebanon, and that the largest pro-Iranian force is Hezbollah, which has deployed about 130,000 missiles in Lebanon and is targeting Israel.

From the authors' perspective, attacking Israel is Iran's most important card in its power gamble in the Middle East: "Israel has the Iron Dome air defense system, but with a massive (missile) attack, it is likely that half of the attacking missiles will be neutralized."

But why doesn't Iran use this winning card?

"Because it cannot use it multiple times. Israel's response could be a counterattack and military intervention in Lebanon. In that case, the missile arsenal that Iran has been accumulating for Hezbollah for more than a decade will be destroyed, and Tehran's most important weapon in the region will be eliminated."

United States and Europe

The German newspaper article also mentions the Islamic Republic's capabilities to attack the United States and Europe. In this regard, it mentions "sleeper cells" affiliated with Lebanon's Hezbollah, several of whom have been identified and tried in the United States.

Western security agencies believe that such "cells" also exist in Europe and are waiting for orders to attack and sabotage.

According to the Die Welt authors, Hezbollah in Lebanon places great importance on the fact that the members of these “cells” are citizens of Western countries. In this regard, reference is made to a suicide attack carried out against an Israeli tourist group in Bulgaria in 2012. The attacker was a French citizen.

The article also mentions the possibility of terrorist attacks on targets in Germany. According to an assessment by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) in the summer of 2019, Iran’s Quds Force intelligence activities in Germany are “conducted with the aim of investigating the targets of possible attacks.”

In this regard, the spying on Reinhold Ruebe, the former head of the German-Israeli Association, was mentioned. In 2017, a Pakistani student was tried in Germany on charges of spying for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to the prosecutor, he had monitored the daily lives of Ruebe and a French-Israeli professor at the Ecole des Ecoles des Ecoles de l'Economie in Paris, controlling their movements.

In addition, German security forces have arrested ten Iranian suspects who are said to have been monitoring Israeli or Jewish facilities and projects.

According to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Iranian opposition activists in Germany are increasingly at risk.

The Federal Criminal Police (BKA) has been updating its assessments of the threat posed by Iranian and non-Iranian pro-Islamic Republic groups since Friday.

Global trade

The four authors of the Die Welt article go on to discuss the threat that Iranian authorities pose to global trade. They discuss attacks on oil tankers by Iranian forces last year, as well as missile and drone attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabian facilities, and emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway for the region's oil trade, and if it is threatened, oil prices will rise significantly and disrupt global trade.

Another waterway used to transport oil and other goods to Europe is the Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

The Die Welt article concludes by noting that the pro-Iranian Houthis could disrupt the strait, which is part of the shortest waterway from the Gulf of Aden to Europe.

Source: DW