Civil Registration Statistics Suggest Coronavirus Deaths in Iran are Twice Official Count

Statistics from Iran’s Civil Registration Organization show that the number of deaths in spring this year is significantly higher than the average of the past five years. Statistics that could reveal the true extent of coronavirus casualties. In the past two days, coronavirus deaths in Iran have set a “record.”

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 (18 Tir), Iran’s Civil Registration Organization published statistics on deaths in the first quarter of this year on its website after a long pause. According to these statistics, the number of deaths in spring 2020 was at least 20,000 more than the average mortality rate over the past five years.

This comparison shows that the significant increase in mortality can only be caused by COVID-19. Because in the past three months, there was no particular incident or factor such as an earthquake or flood that could increase Iran’s mortality rate.

One important factor affecting Iranian mortality is road accidents, which this year decreased sharply due to quarantine, especially during the Nowruz holidays. This is while in Iran, on average about 2,000 people lose their lives monthly in urban and inter-city accidents.

Given Iran’s two-month quarantine and the reduction in accidents and consequently a reduction of approximately 3,000 to 4,000 deaths caused by accidents, the actual number of deaths in the first quarter of this year should be estimated at between 23,000 to 24,000 people.

Thus, the actual statistics of coronavirus deaths in Iran are at least double the figures announced by the Ministry of Health. In its latest report (Wednesday, July 8), the Ministry of Health announced the total number of coronavirus deaths at 12,084 people.

According to the Civil Registration Organization’s website, the provinces with the highest number of deaths are: Tehran with approximately 3,700 deaths, Isfahan with approximately 1,800 deaths, Mazandaran with approximately 1,400 deaths, Khuzestan with approximately 1,300 deaths, Razavi Khorasan with approximately 1,200 deaths, Gilan with approximately 1,200 deaths, and Kurdistan with approximately 1,100 deaths.

Conceding a Goal at Minute 40 of Coronavirus

Iraj Harirchi, Deputy Minister of Health of Iran, told the Young Journalists Club on Tuesday, July 7: “We conceded a goal at minute 40 of coronavirus.” Who left the goal unguarded? The people or the government or both? Harirchi says the cause of the sharp increase in coronavirus deaths is “the end of restrictions, economic problems, and failure of people to follow protocols.” He warned that if “comprehensive measures and necessary cooperation are not taken, the situation will certainly get worse.”

Ali Aetaa, spokesman for Tehran City Council, wrote on his Twitter account that the rapid increase in patients and deaths is “surprising.” He described Tehran’s situation as “very deplorable” and asked officials to immediately implement the most serious restrictions. Among his suggestions are remote work for employees and the implementation of restrictions in the capital.

Ali Maher, Deputy Director of Planning and Supervision of the Corona Response Command Headquarters in Tehran, told ISNA news agency that the number of cases is increasing both in Tehran and in other parts of Iran. He warned that “if this trend continues, within less than 10 days, twice the current number of hospital beds will be occupied and we will face serious problems.”

Based on reports, one-quarter of Tehran’s beds are occupied by coronavirus patients. Ali Maher reported preparations for more beds to serve patients in case of an increase in cases, but emphasized that restrictions must be reimposed to reduce cases. In this regard, suggestions have been made to the corona response headquarters, which, if accepted, will be implemented from next Saturday.

10 Provinces in Red Alert, 10 Provinces in Warning Status

Sima Sadat Lari, spokeswoman for the Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education, informed IRNA about the red alert situation in 10 provinces of Iran: Khuzestan, Hormozgan, Bushehr, Kermanshah, Kurdistan, Ilam, West and East Azerbaijan, and Razavi Khorasan. According to her, Tehran, Isfahan, Mazandaran, Golestan, Alborz, Kerman, Yazd, Sistan and Baluchestan, Hamadan, and Ardabil are in warning status.

Farhad Abolnezadian, acting head of Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences in Ahvaz, told Sima Khuzestan regarding the spread of coronavirus in Khuzestan Province: “There is no shortage of ICU beds in Khuzestan, but we also have no empty capacity.” He criticized the lack of healthcare infrastructure as “one of the problems and backwardness of Khuzestan Province from the past.”

According to Iran’s Ministry of Health statistics, so far 248,379 people have been infected with coronavirus in Iran. With 153 deaths in the past 24 hours, the number of coronavirus deaths in Iran has reached 12,084 people. Of course, according to Ministry of Health statistics. It is possible that civil registration statistics in the coming months will show much higher figures.

Source: DW