Fragile Ceasefire Between Victorious Azerbaijan and Defeated Armenia

Protests continue in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. Demonstrators are calling for the resignation of Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s Prime Minister. Experts view the peace agreement resulting from Armenia’s military defeat in confrontation with the Republic of Azerbaijan as fragile.

Russian peacekeeping forces have been deployed to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Despite the issuance of a ban on gatherings, protests continue in Yerevan and other parts of Armenia.

Several opposition leaders in Armenia have been detained on charges of propaganda for riots and uprising against the government. Although the November 9 agreement between the three countries—Armenia, the Republic of Azerbaijan, and Russia—ended the six-week war and confrontation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, it did not create conditions for establishing a lasting peace.

People in the streets of Yerevan have chanted against Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s Prime Minister, calling him a “traitor” and demanding his removal.

Pashinyan announced in a Facebook post that he was forced to make such a decision under pressure from the country’s military officials.

Armania’s Prime Minister clarified in his post that based on the assessment of military leaders, continuing the war with Azerbaijan could result in the complete loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and therefore he agreed to the accord.

An Agreement and Several Questions

With the participation and mediation of Russia, the two countries—the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia—reached an agreement on a ceasefire. An agreement that essentially means the transfer of a significant portion of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan stated in his Facebook post that the mountainous region of Stepanakert was in danger. Continuing the war could have led to the advance of Azerbaijan’s military forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and effectively resulted in the loss of Martuni and Askeran. In such circumstances, Armenia’s military defeat in the war would have taken on much broader dimensions.

Armenia’s Prime Minister emphasized that after consulting with the Chief of Staff of the country’s Armed Forces, he was forced to sign the accord.

According to this agreement, parts of the areas that Azerbaijan’s army had captured in recent weeks will come under Baku’s control.

Accordingly, control of the city of Kalbajar, Aghdam, and the Lachin corridor is to be transferred to the Republic of Azerbaijan in several phases by the end of November.

Russian and Turkish Peacekeepers

In the third clause of the trilateral agreement between Russia, Armenia, and the Republic of Azerbaijan, it is stated that monitoring the ceasefire will be the responsibility of the Russian Army. It is planned that 1,960 Russian soldiers will be deployed in this region.

In the peace agreement of the three countries, there is no mention of Turkish military presence in this region. This is despite the fact that monitoring compliance with the ceasefire is to be carried out jointly by the Russian and Turkish armies.

Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, who is in Baku, announced that regarding the formation of a joint peacekeeping force, a delegation from Russia is scheduled to travel to Turkey on Friday, November 13.

The purpose of this visit has been stated as discussions on establishing a joint headquarters to monitor the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Çavuşoğlu announced that this headquarters will monitor ceasefire compliance using drones and other capabilities.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister said: “I hope Armenia has learned from its mistakes.” Çavuşoğlu also reiterated threats against Armenia, stating that if the country violates the ceasefire agreement, it “will pay the price.”

An Unstable Peace

Experts from the International Crisis Group believe that the agreement signed between the three countries—Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia—is unstable and fragile.

According to the report of these experts, Azerbaijan has been militarily victorious in the war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and Armenia has suffered a “devastating defeat.”

In the view of these experts, an agreement that stems from one side’s defeat and “humiliation” cannot be considered an appropriate foundation for establishing a lasting peace.

According to this accord, Russian soldiers will be deployed for five years at the Lachin border crossing, which connects Stepanakert to Armenia through Azerbaijani territory. It is expected that if necessary, the Russian soldiers’ mission can be extended for another five years.

Source: DW