Iran on the Brink of Change: Reza Pahlavi’s Name in Power Equations and Washington’s Uncertainties

Iran is on the brink of change, with Reza Pahlavi’s name emerging in Iran’s leadership discussions, coinciding with nationwide protests and America’s cautious approach toward the country’s political future, marking a victory for the Iranian people.

As nationwide protests in Iran enter their critical weeks and the brutal suppression of demonstrators continues, political developments outside the country have also captured observers’ attention. Recent statements by the U.S. President regarding Reza Pahlavi, alongside the activities of senior American senators, have once again brought the discussion of Iran’s future political leadership to the forefront of international analysis.

Donald Trump, the U.S. President, stated on Thursday, January 15th, corresponding to December 25th in the Persian calendar, in an interview with Reuters that he has not held any discussions with Reza Pahlavi to date and expressed doubt about his position within Iran. Trump said in this interview: “I don’t know if his country will accept his leadership or not, and of course if they do, it won’t be a problem for me.”

He continued with a cautious tone: “He looks very good, but I don’t know how he is received in his own country. We really haven’t reached that stage yet and we are examining many things. It’s too early to make a definitive judgment. I don’t know what his relationship with his country is like.”

These statements come as widespread protests that began on December 7th in various Iranian cities have featured slogans such as “Long Live the Shah” and “This is not the last battle, the Pahlavis are returning” alongside anti-government chants and slogans against Ali Khamenei. The presence of these slogans indicates the return of the Pahlavi name to Iran’s protest space, although the degree of political organization in this movement remains debatable.

In its analysis of this situation, the news agency wrote that Reza Pahlavi has become one of the prominent voices in the protest space, but the Iranian opposition remains fragmented and suffers from ideological and political divisions; divisions that have limited its ability to create a cohesive alternative within the country.

Concurrent with Trump’s remarks, Lindsey Graham, a senior Republican senator, announced his meeting and discussions with Reza Pahlavi. He posted a video of this meeting on the social network X, in which he tells Pahlavi: “The people of Iran are the ones who will choose their next leader, and I eagerly await the day when they have such an opportunity. But you have really presented yourself well at this juncture and have offered a convincing narrative for the suffering people of Iran. I wholeheartedly believe that help is on the way.”

This meeting demonstrates that in some circles of American politics, discussions about Iran’s future have transcended the level of analysis and entered into direct engagement with figures opposed to the government.

Within Iran, protests have faced widespread and bloody suppression. Human rights sources report the killing of thousands by direct fire from government forces. A complete internet shutdown since the evening of December 18th has severely limited access to accurate information about the extent of suppression, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty about the country’s situation.

In such an atmosphere, Trump raised the possibility of the collapse of Iran’s government in his remarks, but at the same time said: “In fact, any regime can collapse. Whether it collapses or not, in any case, it will be an interesting period.”

Hours before the release of Trump’s interview, he announced that based on information he received, the severity of killings in Iran has decreased and there is currently no plan for widespread executions. He stated on Wednesday evening: “The killings in Iran are being stopped. They have stopped and there is no plan for executions.” When asked about the source of this information, he replied that these data were provided to him by “very important sources on the other side of the matter.”

Despite these statements, the U.S. President did not completely rule out military action and said: “We will see how things proceed.”

Meanwhile, reports emerged of warnings regarding flight bans in Iranian airspace and growing speculation about possible U.S. military action. Two European officials stated that such intervention could occur within 24 hours, and an Israeli official also announced signs of Trump’s decision to intervene, though the timing and scope remain unclear.

In response, a Western military official also emphasized: “All signs indicate that an American attack is imminent, but this government typically maintains this posture to keep everyone in a state of readiness. Unpredictability is part of the strategy.”

The simultaneous developments in the streets of Iran and in the decision-making rooms of Washington indicate that Iran’s crisis has entered a new phase. On one hand, public protests have challenged the government’s legitimacy, and on the other hand, names such as Reza Pahlavi have once again emerged in international equations. Nevertheless, Trump’s caution in commenting on the future of Iran’s leadership suggests that America continues to weigh its options; options that could change Iran’s political fate for years to come.