Population Aging and Declining Fertility Rate; New Concerns for Iran’s Officials

According to the advisor to the Minister of Health, Iran will be the oldest country in the world within the next 30 years. Another deputy minister also expressed concern about the “steep decline” in the fertility rate. Now is the time for the population policies favored by Khamenei to be implemented meticulously.

Upon the suggestion of the Civil Registration Organization and approval of the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, the 30th of Ordibehesht is registered annually as “National Population Day” in Iran’s calendar.

This day coincides with the day of announcement of population policies by Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In 2014, Ali Khamenei announced general population policies in 14 articles through a decree. The policies announced by Khamenei are based above all on encouraging more childbirth, consolidating the family institution at any cost, and encouraging the care of the elderly within the family space.

“National Population Day” is an annual opportunity for officials who deal with this issue in some way to promote the policies determined by the Supreme Leader through presenting statistics and figures.

Population Aging; Worse Than Coronavirus

Mohammad Ismail Akbari, Senior Advisor to the Minister of Health, centered his remarks on the occasion of National Population Day on Iran’s aging population and concerns about it. According to this official: “Over the past 70 years, the world has aged by approximately five years, but unfortunately Iran’s population has aged by 10 years over the past 60 years. Of course, this won’t remain constant and we continue to age.”

The Senior Advisor to the Minister of Health stated that Iran will be the oldest country in the world within the next 30 years and described this issue as “worse than the coronavirus pandemic.”

Based on statistics he announced, in 2019 compared to 2018, there were 170,000 fewer births registered in Iran, and in 2018 there were also 120,000 fewer births than in 2017. He criticized the fact that “no one has raised their voice” about this issue and said: “What has happened that we are delighted with the smallest economic growth, but not with the birth of an Iranian child? How is it that we are stirred by unfortunate events like earthquakes and floods, but nothing happens when there are 170,000 fewer births over the course of a year?”

He then referred to policies encouraging childbirth in other countries and even mentioned that India and China have also changed their population control policies and have turned to policies of greater childbirth.

Population aging is indeed considered a problem by all governments because productive labor force in an aging population becomes less than the consuming force, raising costs for the government.

However, countries that the Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Health cited as examples, such as Germany and Japan, all have dynamic economies and per capita incomes much higher than Iran’s per capita income. Unemployment rates and inflation are also much lower in those countries than in Iran, and their GDP is not comparable to Iran’s.

For example, based on International Monetary Fund statistics in 2018, per capita GDP in Germany was $53,567, in Japan $45,546, and in Iran $17,662.

In the first half of 2019, the unemployment rate in Germany was 3.2%, in Japan 2.4%, and in Iran 10.5%.

During the same period, the inflation rate in Germany was reported as 1.5%, in Japan 1%, and in Iran 40%.

Another Concern: Steep Decline in Iran’s Fertility Rate

Dr. Shahla Khosravi, Advisor to the Minister of Health for Midwifery Affairs, expressed concern about the “steep decline in fertility rate” in a conversation with ISNA on the occasion of National Population Day.

She said that over the past 30 years, following population control policies and the rising age of marriage, the fertility rate has declined steeply. According to Dr. Khosravi, the fertility rate in the decade of 1976-1986 reached five to six children per woman, but currently it is 1.8 children per woman.

This official considered “change in lifestyle” as the most important cause of declining fertility rate and said this lifestyle should be reformed: “To achieve this, the role of motherhood should be prominent and her beliefs about childbirth should be corrected and fear of pregnancy should be eliminated. Pregnancy is not a worry or burden.”

“Emphasizing the role of motherhood” has been the dominant policy of the Islamic Republic throughout the past 40 years, but after the formulation of population policies by Khamenei, government institutions have also taken practical steps to this end.

Including the passage of a law reducing working hours for employed women who have children under six years old and facilitating retirement conditions for women, including lower retirement age and work experience compared to men.

These laws may appear beneficial to women at first glance, but gradually push women away from the job market and consequently from social presence, and also cause employers, when hiring, to prefer men over women even with equal qualifications, because they can rely more on male labor than female labor.

This issue—the displacement of women from the job market and society—apparently is not a concern for Islamic Republic officials. What is currently important is preventing population aging and raising the fertility rate “at any cost.”

Source: DW