Reuters: Rising oil prices help Iran buy time to return to JCPOA

On Thursday, May 5, Reuters news agency reported, citing several officials familiar with Iranian government policies, that following the increase in oil prices due to the war in Ukraine, "the Islamic Republic's religious leaders are in no hurry to revive the JCPOA and lift US sanctions."

A senior Iranian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the Islamic Republic's nuclear activities were "going according to plan" and that time was on Iran's side.

Stating that Iran's economy is no longer dependent on the revival of the JCPOA at this point, the official emphasized that "if the negotiations fail, the world will not end," and that if negotiations are resumed, it will be a great advantage for Iran in any case.

According to Reuters, although the Iranian government apparently still wants to revive the JCPOA and, as a result, gradually lift US sanctions, officials say that the rise in oil prices on the global market has created an exceptional opportunity to increase Iran's foreign income and reduce pressure on the country's economy.

Due to the severe pressure of US sanctions on the Iranian economy, which has led to widespread dissatisfaction among various segments of society, the Islamic Republic accepted negotiations to revive the JCPOA more than a year ago.

Until late March, it seemed that a final agreement was not far off. But since then, negotiations have been stalled due to the Iranian government's "last-minute" insistence on removing the Revolutionary Guard Corps from the US list of terrorist organizations.

Following the US's " unilateral " withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, the Donald Trump administration imposed severe sanctions on Iran's financial sector and oil exports.

Under the influence of these sanctions, which became known as "maximum pressure," the volume of Iranian oil exports dropped from about 2.8 million barrels to 200,000 barrels per day.

In retaliation to US pressure, the Iranian government has violated some of its commitments under the nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) since 2019 and increased uranium enrichment by launching advanced centrifuges.

According to US estimates, Iran is only weeks away from accumulating the nuclear fuel needed to produce nuclear weapons.

The Islamic Republic claims that it only seeks the "peaceful" use of nuclear energy.

The status of oil exports in Iran in 2014

Jihad Azour, head of the Middle East Department at the International Monetary Fund, told Reuters that "Iran's economy has adapted to sanctions in recent years" and that "increasing oil prices and increased oil exports will increase Iran's revenues."

Global oil prices have increased sharply due to the Ukraine crisis, to the point where in March this year the price of a barrel of Brent oil reached $139, an unprecedented increase since 2008.

In the budget approved by the Islamic Consultative Assembly last year, Iran's oil export volume was set at about 1.2 million barrels per day, based on a price of $60 per barrel.

However, according to media reports inside Iran, this year's strategic budget has been set based on an export volume of about 1.4 million barrels and a price of $70.

Although Iran never officially announces the volume of its oil exports, a senior Iranian oil industry official said the country's export volume has now reached about 1.5 million barrels per day, much of which is sold to China at a discount.

Some experts believe that Islamic Republic officials should know that the recent openings will not be long-term.

Reaching an agreement in Vienna to end sanctions and their severe toll on Iran's economy is of great importance in terms of containing discontent within the country.

The inflation rate has increased sharply in the past three years, and experts believe that under the influence of the uncontrolled increase in the prices of basic goods, about half of Iran's population is now below the poverty line.

From the perspective of many experts, this situation is very dangerous and could face the Iranian government with a serious crisis.

Source: Radio Farda