"Top Secret" Document from the Sarallah Headquarters: "Society is in a State of Subcutaneous Explosion"

In a "top secret" document obtained by Radio Farda from a meeting of the "Working Group for the Prevention of Livelihood Security Crises," it was announced that "society is in a state of sub-cutaneous explosion" and that social discontent has increased "300 percent" in the past year.

This document, which was provided to Radio Farda by the cyber group "Justice Ali", is the full text of the seven-page minutes of the meeting of the Sarallah headquarters on November 20, 1421, which was held under the chairmanship of Brigadier General Hossein Nejat, the deputy commander-in-chief of the IRGC at the headquarters, and was attended by representatives of the Tehran Prosecutor's Office, the Tehran Intelligence Organization, the National Intelligence and Public Security Police (NAJA), the Basij Economic Intelligence, the Hazrat Seyyed al-Shohada Corps, the Hazrat Rasul Corps, the Basij of the National Trade Unions, and the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

The IRGC's Sarallah Headquarters is one of the main institutions responsible for suppressing protests in the country. Sarallah Headquarters is the most important security headquarters in the capital of the Islamic Republic, tasked with protecting Tehran and important government institutions located in Tehran against any type of danger, including popular uprisings and widespread anti-government protests, or military threats against the government such as coups.

Given that the commander of the Sarallah base is himself the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, and he usually does not have the opportunity to directly command the Sarallah base, in practice he delegates his command authority at this base to his successor.

"Society is in a state of subdermal explosion"

Mohammadi, from the Social Affairs Department of the IRGC Intelligence Organization, was one of the attendees at the meeting and said: "A survey has been conducted in society that shows that the situation in society is in a state of sub-cutaneous explosion."

Referring to the coming to power of the conservative government of Ebrahim Raisi, he claimed that initially "national trust indicators were restored," but then said, "several shocks in recent months have caused people to doubt whether this government can or cannot."

"Society is in a state of subdermal explosion"

Mohammadi, from the Social Affairs Department of the IRGC Intelligence Organization, was one of the attendees at the meeting and said: "A survey has been conducted in society that shows that the situation in society is in a state of sub-cutaneous explosion."

Referring to the coming to power of the conservative government of Ebrahim Raisi, he claimed that initially "national trust indicators were restored," but then said, "several shocks in recent months have caused people to doubt whether this government can or cannot."

Mohammadi stated that "the situation in the automobile and stock markets has caused indicators of trust in the government to be severely shaken" and "currently 53 percent of society views the government's claims with skepticism."

The IRGC intelligence official said that "social dissatisfaction has increased by about 300 percent over the past year" and that the protests in Iran are focused on "inflation, legal arrears, social unrest, and water."

Mohammadi added that regarding the 4,200-toman currency, "an incomplete policy package is being implemented" and, on the other hand, "the difference in narratives is increasing doubts that these factors have led to increased hoarding, drug hoarding, and drug price increases."

The IRGC Intelligence official further referred to the administration of the coronavirus vaccine in the country and said that "about seven thousand coronavirus injection stations were set up, and health workers worked overtime to administer the injections. The overtime work of these workers was not paid, which could lead to civil disobedience in administering the third dose."

Anticipating protests in the final months of the year

In this meeting, "Colonel Kaviani from the NAJA Public Security and Intelligence Police" presented a report on predictions about the protests in the last four months of 1400 and said that "gatherings in 1400 increased by 48 percent compared to 1399, and the number of demonstrators increased by 98 percent."

He added: "Economic gatherings have increased by 56 percent compared to last year. Gatherings in labor environments have increased by 136 percent, and most of the places for gatherings have been in front of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Ministry of Labor."

According to Colonel Kaviani, "The time of the rally was between 9 and 11:30 in the morning, and the largest number of rallies were held from Sunday to Wednesday."

This law enforcement official said: "We have witnessed the highest number of gatherings from July to the first of October and from January to February [2020]. We have the highest number of gatherings of basic economy people in the summer, fall, and mid-fall."

He stated that "most of the basic economic crimes took place in the second police station (market and parliament)."

Colonel Kaviani noted that "annual inflation has increased by about 19.4 percent from Shahrivar 2019 to Shahrivar 2021." (If security and comfort are compromised, it will lead to insecurity.)

He also reported on the percentage increase in the prices of various basic goods and said that the actual inflation rate of basic food items in November of this year compared to November of 2019 was between 86 and 268 percent.

These figures are much higher than official reports from the Statistics Center and other government institutions on food inflation.

The NAJA commander's estimate shows that the actual inflation of protein items such as mutton is 70 percent, beef is 113 percent, fish is 188 percent, chicken is 138 percent, and eggs are 186 percent.

He said that due to the significant increase in prices, meat, poultry, and legumes have been replaced by soybeans, and domestic and foreign rice, which has seen a price increase of between 133 and 222 percent, has been replaced on people's tables by pasta.

This official of the Intelligence and Public Security Police of the National Security Force says that "55 trade union gatherings are expected in the last four months of the year. Trade union gatherings will grow by 22 percent by the end of the year compared to last year."

Colonel Kaviani has warned that "if we do not manage the elimination of the preferential currency and the new wave of price increases intelligently, it could lead to an economic crisis."

He presented five proposals, calling for "division of work among members of the intelligence community in the area of ​​basic livelihood issues and their accountability," "suggestions to state-level officials regarding the provision of basic necessities and psychological relief for the community," and "intensification of the intelligence community's activities in assisting state managers in decision-making with the aim of reducing errors."

Remove preferential currency

At this meeting, Shahbazi from the Tehran Intelligence Organization said that the system is "forced" to eliminate the 4,200-toman currency and the way to compensate for this should be to resort to subsidies.

According to him, most of the profits from preferential currency go to brokers and intermediaries, and inflation is highest in basic goods imported with preferential currency, and the most corruption is in the area of ​​distribution of essential items.

Shahbazi added that the best way to eliminate the 4,200-toman currency is to deposit subsidies into the accounts of vulnerable people and eliminate subsidies for the upper deciles.

Eliminating subsidies for the upper deciles

Mehrab from the IRGC's economic intelligence team has also estimated that so far 20 items of goods have been removed from preferential currency and "no special incident" has occurred, and this plan can be implemented "without noise": Removing preferential currency is a necessary step, taking into account considerations such as "sending security and psychological attachments."

The document further states that "the top four deciles of society are to be removed from subsidy recipients" and that the subsidy for the bottom six deciles will be increased; the first three deciles will receive a subsidy of 110,000 Tomans per month and the second three deciles will receive 90,000 Tomans per month.

Mr. Mehrab has said, "If precautions are not taken, we will have a 100 percent crisis."

The government of Ebrahim Raisi has sent a plan to eliminate the preferential currency to the parliament, and the 4,200-toman currency will not be seen in next year's budget; there has been opposition to this plan in the parliament, and the fate of the 4,200-toman currency for next year is still unclear.

The estimates of the IRGC commanders' meeting indicate that the elimination of preferential currency will lead to a further increase in the price of food items, but the only way to counter it is to eliminate the currency of the upper deciles and deposit more subsidies into the accounts of the lower deciles.

In concluding the meeting on November 20, the IRGC Brigadier General said: "The most important issue we are currently dealing with is this preferred currency, which we must focus our attention on and focus on."

According to him, "It is necessary to examine what the government's plans are? What is its economic and propaganda component? How can the people and members of parliament be convinced?"

Source: Radio Farda