UN Sanctions Against Iran Return as Trigger Mechanism Activated

With the failure of the China-Russia resolution in the Security Council, the trigger mechanism has been activated and the return of UN sanctions against Iran has become certain.

The proposed resolution by China and Russia for a six-month suspension of the trigger mechanism failed in the Security Council. The proposal received only four votes in favor (China, Russia, Pakistan, and Algeria) and faced nine votes against and two abstentions. Now the “snapback” has been finalized and UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, after a period of ten years, will be re-imposed tomorrow at 8 p.m. New York time.

The rejection of this resolution has effectively paved the way for the automatic return of sanctions and eliminated the need for the United States to exercise its veto power.

The trigger mechanism, or snapback, is one of the key provisions of the nuclear agreement (JCPOA), under which if any party to the agreement believes Iran has not complied with its obligations, they can refer the matter to the Security Council. If there is no consensus to continue the suspension of sanctions, all previous UN Security Council restrictions will automatically return. The activation of this mechanism means the return of the most comprehensive set of sanctions against Iran since 2015.

The return of sanctions will likely increase pressure on Iran’s economy. Access to international financial and banking markets will be further restricted, foreign investment will decline, and foreign trade will face higher costs and greater risks. On the domestic level, experts raise the possibility of increased inflation and weakening of the national currency’s value, which could further deteriorate economic conditions.

From a political perspective, this development also demonstrates serious divisions among Security Council members. Although China and Russia attempted to prevent the return of sanctions, the opposition of the majority of members resulted in their efforts failing. The activation of the trigger mechanism could complicate the future negotiations landscape regarding the JCPOA and limit the scope of Iran’s interactions with allies and international partners. Furthermore, this measure will likely place Iran’s diplomatic relations with some countries under additional strain.