Crisis warning, military movements in Iran and evacuation of garrisons in the shadow of protests

After Trump's warning of intervention and concerns about a war influenced by the protests, the evacuation of garrisons in various cities began.

As nationwide protests in Iran enter their second week, independent reports indicate widespread activity in the country’s military and law enforcement centers, which could indicate another part of the political, social, and security crisis. The activity comes at a time of heightened international tensions over Iran and concerns about the possibility of escalating conflicts.

According to reports received from reliable sources and the publication of relevant videos on social media, on the morning of Tuesday, January 6, 1404, several military and police barracks and headquarters in various cities of the country were suddenly evacuated, and soldiers were told that there was a possibility of war and were discharged at night.

According to an informed source: "Among the first military centers to be evacuated, the Shahid Darvishi barracks in Ahvaz belongs to the police force. The soldiers have been told to leave the center as soon as possible."

These movements have included the transfer of forces to spare headquarters such as parking lots, silos, or government buildings, an action that, according to a law enforcement source, began on Monday night, January 5, after the recent ultimatum in the international arena.

While one of the law enforcement officials said: "The possibility of a war is the main factor behind these movements, because they want to prevent casualties in the event of an attack, but there could be other reasons, including decisions related to the prolonged protests."

International reports also indicate rising tensions and concerns that the crisis will spread beyond Iran’s domestic uprisings. In recent weeks, the media has noted the ups and downs of regional tensions and global stances on Iran, including warnings about the possibility of escalating conflicts and diplomatic and military responses at the regional level, an issue that indicates the impact of the Iranian crisis beyond the country’s borders.

The Darvish barracks in Ahvaz, which was one of the first centers to be evacuated, is a long way from the city center; but some soldiers who were forced to leave it at midnight had difficulty returning to urban areas, waiting for hours to find a vehicle or walking to bus or taxi stops.

There have also been reports of precautionary warning messages being sent to military settlements in Tehran, indicating that the security crisis may have spread beyond the country's major provinces.

Anti-government protests in Iran have been ongoing for more than ten days now and have not subsided despite widespread repression. The government, headed by Masoud Pezzekian, has undertaken some economic reforms that experts believe are overdue and that society cannot bear the pressure of poverty and high inflation. The prices of some basic items such as oil, rice and chicken have increased significantly and in some cases have become scarce, which could be a factor in the spread of public discontent.

At the global level, the consequences of the Iran crisis have also been considered. In response to US warnings about the possibility of an attack on Iran, the Kremlin has called for restraint and urged the parties to refrain from escalating tensions, an issue that shows that tensions around Iran go beyond borders.

Media outlets have also reported that Western countries have warned of the possibility of increased military activity and caution in the Strait of Hormuz and areas surrounding the Persian Gulf.

The military moves and evacuations of garrisons (as protests continue in Iran) illustrate the complexity of the current crisis. Although officials have yet to provide a clear explanation, the timing of these actions, coupled with domestic security sensitivities, economic pressures, and international tensions, has led analysts to see them as a sign of instability and the possibility of the crisis continuing to escalate.

This report can be used as an overall picture of the security, political, and social situation in Iran at this stage of the protests and the reactions of military and government institutions, a picture that goes beyond a single event and indicates a multi-layered crisis whose effects may continue in the coming months.