Aging population and declining fertility rate; new concern for Iranian officials

According to the health minister’s advisor, Iran will be the oldest country in the world within the next 30 years. Another deputy minister expressed concern about the “sudden decline” in the fertility rate. Now is the time to implement Khamenei’s ambitious population policies.

At the suggestion of the Civil Registration Organization and the approval of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, May 30th has been registered as "National Population Day" in the Iranian calendar every year.

This day coincides with the day of the announcement of the general population policies by Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In 2014, Ali Khamenei issued a decree announcing the general population policies in 14 paragraphs. The policies announced by Khamenei are based, above all, on encouraging more children, strengthening the family foundation at all costs, and encouraging the care of the elderly in the family environment.

"National Population Day" is an excuse every year for officials who are somehow involved in this issue to promote the policies determined by the regime's leadership by presenting statistics and figures.

The aging of the population; more bitter than Corona

Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Senior Advisor to the Minister of Health, focused his remarks on the occasion of National Population Day on the aging of Iran's population and concerns about it. According to the official, "The world has become about five years older over the past 70 years, but Iran's population has unfortunately become 10 years older over the past 60 years. Of course, this is not going to remain the same and we will continue to get older."

The senior advisor to the Minister of Health said that Iran will be the oldest country in the world in the next 30 years, calling this issue "more bitter than the Corona pandemic."

According to statistics he announced, 170,000 fewer births were registered in Iran in 2019 than in 2018, and 120,000 fewer births were registered in 2018 than in 2017. He criticized the fact that “no one raised a voice” about this issue, saying: “What happened that we are happy with the slightest economic growth, but not with the birth of an Iranian child? How is it that we get excited with a chaotic event like an earthquake and flood, but nothing happens with a decrease of 170,000 births in a year?”

He then referred to policies encouraging childbearing in other countries and even said that in India and China, population control policies have changed and they have turned to a policy of having more children.

Population aging is, of course, considered a problem for all governments because the labor and productive force in an aging population is less than the consuming force, increasing the cost for the government.

But the countries that the senior advisor to the Ministry of Health gave as examples, such as Germany and Japan, all have dynamic economies and per capita incomes much higher than Iran's. Their unemployment and inflation rates are also much lower than Iran's, and their GDP is not comparable to Iran's.

For example, according to International Monetary Fund statistics in 2018, the per capita GDP in Germany was $53,567, in Japan $45,546, and in Iran $17,662.

In the first half of 2019, the unemployment rate in Germany was 3.2%, in Japan 2.4%, and in Iran 10.5%.

During the same period, the inflation rate in Germany was reported to be 1.5 percent, in Japan 1 percent, and in Iran 40 percent.

Another concern: the steep decline in fertility in Iran

Dr. Shahla Khosravi, advisor to the Minister of Health on midwifery, expressed concern about the "sudden decline in fertility" in an interview with ISNA on the occasion of National Population Day.

He said that in the past 30 years, following population control policies and the increase in the age of marriage, the fertility rate has declined sharply. According to Dr. Khosravi, the fertility rate in the 1976-1985 decade reached six children per woman, but currently it is 1.8 children per woman.

This official considered "lifestyle changes" to be the most important cause of the decline in fertility rates and said that this lifestyle must be reformed: "To achieve this, the role of motherhood must be prominent, and her beliefs about childbearing must be reformed, and the fear of pregnancy must be eliminated. Pregnancy is not a worry or a hassle."

"Emphasizing the role of motherhood" has been the dominant policy of the Islamic Republic for the past 40 years, but after Khamenei formulated population policies, government institutions have also taken practical steps to this end.

Including the passage of a law reducing the working hours of working women who have children under six years old, as well as facilitating retirement conditions for women, including a lower retirement age and work history than men.

These laws may seem to benefit women at first glance, but they gradually distance women from the labor market and, consequently, from their presence in society. They also cause employers to prefer men over women when hiring, even under the same conditions, because they can count on the male workforce more than the female.

This means that women are being excluded from the labor market and society, but apparently this is not a concern for the Islamic Republic's officials. What is important now is to prevent the aging of the population and increase the fertility rate "at any cost."

Source: DW