Iran vs. America: Heroic Appeasement or Warmongering Turn?

The US is determined to significantly increase the intensity of its pressure on Iran. What conditions does Europe have to support Iran? How reliable and effective is the umbrella of support from Russia and China? Will the regime show heroic flexibility or take a warlike turn?

The announcement of John Bolton's appointment as the White House National Security Advisor sparked a wave of reactions in the international media; in the best case scenario, it is expected that the United States, even if it does not withdraw from the JCPOA, will increase its pressure on Iran to the point that Iran's economic relations with global markets will become more limited and foreign investment in the country will become even more blocked.

Many are predicting the possibility of America withdrawing from the JCPOA, and some believe that with the new arrangement in the White House, the option of war has become more serious.

Iranian officials have yet to show any significant reaction to the concentration of maximum pressure elements in Donald Trump’s cabinet. Among the few reactions was Hossein Naqvi Hosseini’s interview with the spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Majlis, in which he said on Sunday (April 25) that the US’s ultimate goal is “to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran.” He recommended that the Islamic Republic adopt a “more revolutionary” policy.

Mojtaba Zolnour, another member of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, also said that Iran will take retaliatory action against the United States.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, told the ISNA student news agency about strengthening relations with China and Russia. And Eshaq Jahangiri, the first vice president, also looked with concern at Donald Trump's Nowruz message and saw no room for the usual extremist slogans of the main rulers of the Islamic regime, saying: "The US president is making dangerous statements about Iran, and we must carefully and prudently face regional and global issues, and we must be able to overcome these issues with solution thinking and prudence."

Can Iran count on European support?

Europe has long been pushing to preserve the JCPOA, even at the cost of making concessions to the United States, including raising the possibility of new sanctions against Iran’s missile program. The election of John Bolton as the new US Secretary of State has now heightened the country’s concerns about the JCPOA. Or as British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson put it: “Europe may be able to keep the agreement alive even if the US withdraws from the JCPOA, but the JCPOA will lose a lot of its value and the process will become more difficult.”

For the Europeans, the failure of the JCPOA is a severe blow. They not only have their eyes on the attractive Iranian market, but also see any new war or tension in the Middle East as a serious challenge. EU foreign ministers have already made great efforts to persuade Donald Trump to stay in the JCPOA. Whether their efforts have yielded any results will become clear on May 12.

But Europe has long been thinking about an effective solution to absorb the blow of a possible US withdrawal from the JCPOA. The International Crisis Group think tank published a report last winter that pointed to Europe's efforts to create a protective umbrella against secondary US sanctions.

On Monday (March 26), EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini emphasized in a press conference the creation of this protective umbrella to protect the interests of European companies. Michael Todsk, a member of the board of directors of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce, also told DW Persian that Europe is serious about creating this protective umbrella. But what difficulties does this step face?

In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Paris-based economist Fereydoun Khovand points out two important points regarding the European umbrella. He says: "Even if Ms. Mogherini wants it, the policies of different EU countries towards Iran are very different. Among them, Eastern European countries are much closer to American policy than to the policy that Ms. Mogherini wants. That is why it is not easy to implement this policy in the EU.

"Furthermore, even if this protective umbrella were created, no government could encourage or force large European banks and private companies to conduct financial transactions or invest in Iran. These companies continue to fear US sanctions, and ultimately, it is only state-owned banks that enter into transactions with Iran."

Europe's support for Iran is not without a "cost."

Europe’s support for Tehran will not come without a “cost,” of course. At a meeting in Brussels last winter, the foreign ministers of Germany, Britain, and France, along with Federica Mogherini, clearly stated their conditions for supporting Iran, saying: “Iran must abandon its destructive policy in the region. Stop its missile program and end human rights violations in the country.”

The International Crisis Group report also pointed to other conditions for this support; that Europe, despite its great interest in investing in the Iranian economy, especially in the energy sector and long-term partnership in it, expects Iran to take steps in return; “Tehran must solve its domestic economic problems, especially with regard to banking standards, creating a more transparent business environment, and fighting corruption. This is important not only for attracting foreign technology and capital, but also for addressing public discontent.”

Greater reliance on China and Russia

The Islamic Republic has relied on China and Russia for four decades. Now, it may be a political success for Iran to have these two powers supporting it against the US. But what about the economy? Now that the US is engaged in a tariff war with China, will it make a difference in its monetary and economic policies towards Iran?

Fereydoun Hawad says: "China has used Iran only as a market for its goods for all these years and has not played any other role in the Iranian economy except for exporting goods, whether officially or illegally. On the other hand, it has been no less strict than Western countries in its strictness towards the banking system in Iran, but has been stricter. Moreover, the American market is far more important to China than Iran, and this country is never willing to lose economic benefits because of Iran."

He adds: "Despite its large companies in the field of gas and energy, Russia has never done anything important in Iran and probably will not do anything from now on." This expert believes that if Russia takes any steps in this area, it will only be to gain points from the United States using the Iran card, which also does not seem very likely in the current situation.

Will America force Khamenei to once again engage in “heroic softening”?

The heated debate in opposition circles and political experts over the past few days has revolved around how Iran will react to America's maximum pressure policy. Forces such as the People's Mojahedin Organization, which believes that they have found a staunch supporter in the White House with the arrival of John Bolton, are excited and, with the idea that they are far from it, are counting down the days to overthrow the Islamic Republic "before it turns forty."

Social media is filled with comments that indicate completely different feelings among the Iranian opposition towards the arrival of warmongering figures in the White House.

At the same time, some believe that increasing American hostility towards the Islamic Republic will make Ayatollah Khamenei more tough and belligerent in foreign policy and in dealing with domestic dissidents.

But some also believe that the Islamic Republic government neither has the economic strength of previous years to withstand greater political and economic pressures, nor does it enjoy significant domestic public support. These two important factors could lead the Islamic Republic's leader to adopt an "exploitative" approach and force him into another "heroic concession."

Source: DW