Iran’s 2020-2021 Inflation Rate Exceeds IMF Forecast
Iran’s Statistical Center announced on Sunday, the first day of Farvardin, in a report that the 12-month inflation rate ending in Esfand 1399 reached 36.4 percent compared to the same period last year.
This figure even exceeds the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast for Iran’s inflation rate in the past solar year. In its last assessment of Iran’s inflation rate released in October 2020, the international body had predicted that Iran’s annual inflation in 1399 would be around 30.5 percent.
Iran’s Statistical Center also stated in its report that the point-to-point inflation in Esfand (the increase in prices in Esfand of last year compared to Esfand 98) was approximately 48.7 percent.
However, some figures released in the details of price increases in the Statistical Center’s report are even significantly lower than estimates by other official bodies of the Islamic Republic.
For example, while the Statistical Center states that the price of red meat and poultry in Esfand of last year increased only 62 percent compared to the same month in 98, statistics from the Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade show that the price increase was more than 77 percent.
The Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade states that the price of poultry in Esfand 98 was approximately 12,500 tomans, which reached more than 22,000 tomans in Esfand of last year.
This is while the actual price of poultry, according to domestic media reports rather than the official price announced by the government, reached 30,000 tomans in the final weeks of last year; in other words, the point-to-point inflation for poultry meat in Esfand is actually 140 percent.
Also, while the Statistical Center claims that housing price increases during Esfand 98 to Esfand of last year were below 30 percent, the Central Bank’s latest figures show that housing price growth in Tehran from Bahman 98 to Bahman of last year was more than 97 percent. The Central Bank has not yet released its Esfand report.
In any case, Iran’s Statistical Center states that the point-to-point inflation rate for food items in Esfand of last year averaged 66.6 percent, and for non-food goods and services approximately 40.5 percent.
The International Monetary Fund had predicted that the inflation rate in Iran for 1399 would be around 30.5 percent and the highest rate in the world after Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Lebanon, and Sudan.
This international body has also predicted Iran’s inflation rate for the current solar year at 30 percent, which will be the highest rate in the world after Venezuela, Sudan, Yemen, and Suriname.
Source: Radio Farda
