Iran’s System Crisis and Protests: Where Are They Leading? Analysts’ Views

Cities across Iran have become heavily securitized following widespread protests against a tripling of gasoline prices. The Islamic Republic has resorted to intimidation, suppression, and shooting at demonstrators, as well as mass arrests. Where will this situation lead?

Since Friday, the 15th of November, and the tripling of gasoline prices, Iranian cities have descended into an unprecedented state of tension. Various sources, including official Islamic Republic media, have reported widespread protests and demonstrations across Iran. At least a thousand people have been arrested, some killed, and many wounded, though exact numbers remain unclear. Over the past three days, despite internet shutdowns, many protesters and eyewitnesses have attempted to relay news of the protests to foreign media outlets.

The government is bankrupt and broke. People are not only dissatisfied with Hassan Rouhani’s government but with the entire system. Many slogans target the system’s leadership and the main center of power. Ayatollah Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, stands behind the gasoline price increase and has called those opposed to it “evildoers.” How much longer can this situation continue? What resources does the Islamic Republic have to preserve and survive? What can opponents do? Is there potential for nationwide strikes and the unification of protests?

Discourse of regime change will certainly become the dominant discourse in Iran

Mehdi Mahdavi Azad, an analyst of Iranian affairs from Bonn, Germany, tells Deutsche Welle:

“The level of clashes and violence by security forces is very high. Dozens of government buildings have been set on fire, and the death toll is far greater than initially thought. In some rare videos released today, one can see Basij brigades entering the field. The depth and scale of the crisis for the government is much greater than what people outside the country or even inside Iran imagine.

The reality is that the Islamic Republic is trapped in a political, social, and economic deadlock. This situation cannot continue and will end someday with any calculation. However, whether that day has already arrived or not, in my opinion, it has not. These demonstrations, like the December 2017 protests, will ultimately be suppressible. This is because they are leaderless protests. They do not pursue a specific political idea. You cannot even say with certainty that all demonstrators want regime change or have a specific form of government in mind.

Current conditions can be compared to Iran’s protests and demonstrations in 1977, and we still have some distance to the summer protests of 1978. However, the totality of these demonstrations and the developments currently occurring can logically transform regime change into a comprehensive and social discourse in Iran. If the government does not make decisions quickly at these very sensitive moments and points, the discourse of regime change will certainly become the dominant discourse in Iran.

People are not only under severe economic pressure but also under severe political and social repression and are in conflict with the government. If the Islamic Republic wants to continue its survival with this level of tension and friction with the people, it is impossible. The Islamic Republic needs much greater changes to survive. But does the Islamic Republic really have the capacity for this level of change?”

Self-destructing regimes

Mehdi Mahdavi Azad considers the Islamic Republic a self-destructing regime. According to him, the Islamic Republic is like a train moving at high speed, and all passengers on this train know that it will fall into a valley. But for various reasons, none of them can stop it.

Nevertheless, he does not believe that the Islamic Republic’s work will end very quickly, saying:

“This government is among established governments. These types of governments have anti-rebellion structures, have parliaments and laws, dominate the country, and there are a wide range of solutions available to them. However, the totality of ideological, political, and social conditions has left no chance for the Islamic Republic to escape the deadlock. The Islamic Republic must either increase tension levels within the next year, like shooting down a drone or attacking ships in the Persian Gulf, so it can gain concessions from the Western world under the pretext of escalating crisis, or reach some form of reconciliation with the world and the people. That is the same proposal that Hassan Rouhani talked about two weeks ago, saying we should hold a referendum for it. But within the next year, there is no sign of the peaceful approach prevailing.

Economic protests can bring down the most established governments

Mehdi Mahdavi Azad believes that rebellion, demonstrations, and protests, even if they involve the majority of people, do not by themselves lead to the fall of the government. He says: “We are facing an established government like Syria. It is only necessary that the structures of central power, such as parliament, leadership, and the presidency, can protect themselves. Even if the entire country is in the hands of protesters, that government is still considered legally and internationally established.

What causes change is the convergence of protests, their becoming purposeful, finding leadership, and finding a specific discourse aimed at achieving a specific goal. This demand could be a change of government, a referendum, or overthrow. As long as protests in Iran do not take such a form—meaning protesters do not have a specific demand and voices have not united—it will not lead to widespread change in Iran.

But there is one very important point about economic protests: their consequences are unpredictable. Sudan is a notable example. Protests over bread price increases led to Omar al-Bashir’s removal within weeks. Economic protests can spread rapidly and bring down even the most established governments. In this type of protest, all equations can break down quickly.”

The system’s situation is worse than the people’s situation

Hassan Shaeriatmadari, Secretary General of the “Transitional Management Council,” an organization seeking unconditional transition from the Islamic Republic, tells Deutsche Welle Farsi:

“If people persist and force the government to retreat, this time they have forced the entire system to retreat. The general feeling will be that they have defeated Mr. Khamenei, and this creates great confidence for the people. If they cannot persist and the suppression order is so strong that they do not achieve their demands, it will actually be a prelude to future uprisings because people’s livelihood is not a joke.

Therefore, this system, despite all the precautions it has taken, will eventually go away sooner or later. People have felt this and will continue on their path.”

Hassan Shaeriatmadari, in contrast to examples like Venezuela or Syria that continued despite widespread protests and severe public dissatisfaction, points to examples of successful movements and says:

“There are examples like Ukraine and Tunisia, and we should not only highlight failed examples. What matters is seeing issues in a historical phase. From 1972 to now, more than 120 dictatorships in the world have been brought down by people taking to the streets, with their systems consigned to history. The Islamic Republic is not an exception either.

The concern of a large part of the Iranian people is that political collapse should not lead to social collapse. They seek peaceful transition, and protests should be managed. The important point about Iran is that the country’s elites have thought about creating a transitional management and have created it and are trying to connect it to Iranian society. This will take time. But this situation is completely different from countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.”

Proximity to government employees

Hassan Shaeriatmadari believes that protests will continue at different intervals and adds: “People need to regain their strength and cannot be constantly in the streets. But these protests will continue, will be repeated, will become universal, and will force the system to submit. We have examples like Poland where the phase of government collapse took eight years. This is not something that happens from today to tomorrow.”

Hassan Shaeriatmadari says:

“The guidance of the ‘Transitional Management Council’ to the Iranian people is to move toward expanding strikes and protests. Get closer to government employees and encourage them not to go to work as well. In his view, the people’s situation is bad but the system’s situation is worse than the people’s, and it cannot even pay its collective expenses. Therefore, it is not only the people who are in a deadlock. The system is in a much more severe deadlock. We ask law enforcement and the forces that have so far had the task of suppression not to suppress the people, to stand with the people, and to save their own future so that in the not-too-distant future they can take pride in having stood with the people and not sit in the defendant’s chair in court. He believes that Khamenei’s suppression order will not be taken seriously, and the Revolutionary Guards know they need this people. The body of the Guards is with the people, and the leadership of the Guards fears the body joining the people.”

The doors of two or three more hells will open before the Iranian people

Farzaneh Roostai, a journalist and analyst of Iranian affairs from Sweden, tells Deutsche Welle Farsi:

“The crisis is very serious, and the system itself knows this. The situation has gotten much worse since December 2017. The protest over gasoline is a protest that people will not even have bread for dinner, and the government has no solution for it. Because they themselves have closed all doors in the region and in the world. On behalf of the Iranian people, they have left no way out of the crisis. As a result, they are forced to continue with this line with all its dangers. The situation may get worse than this, but the government has made its decision and left no bridge for return.

The country has become economically unmanageable. When the government triples the price of gasoline in these circumstances, it means free fall for Iran’s economy.

But these demonstrations have no leadership or organization, and the Islamic Republic has experience in silence and digesting crises. We had the bus drivers and truckers’ crisis. They watched silently, and truckers were eventually forced to return to work. In the protests of Haft Tapeh sugar cane and other places, we witnessed the same pattern. The government suppressed to a limited extent and waited for people to get tired and become quiet again.

The Islamic Republic either must allow machine guns and mow down people like Syria or Libya. Or wait for a month or two in the same way. Spend a portion of the money it has collected on the people to lower the crisis a bit. Of course, the level of tension in Iran will rise. But the crisis also stabilizes at a higher level. This situation could last two years.

The Islamic Republic, in the most dishonorable way but gradually, suppresses the people, and people gradually calm down. This shows that we are heading toward Venezuelanization. The crisis becomes more complicated and unsolvable. This is a real hell. The doors of two or three other hells will open before the Iranian people.”

Source: DW