Risk of Civil War in Iran Following Collapse of Islamic Government

The “Henry Jackson Society” held a session examining the collapse of the Islamic Republic government and the risk of civil war.

Experts from the “Henry Jackson Society” warned during a session: “The collapse of Iran’s government could lead to civil war, the solution to which is the formation of a unified opposition and the prevention of a power vacuum.”

The British think tank held the aforementioned session online to examine Iran’s future following the potential collapse of the Islamic Republic government. During this session, researchers and political activists warned about the risk of creating a governance vacuum and consequently civil war in Iran, emphasizing that Iran’s people must be prevented from facing scenarios similar to Syria or Iraq at any cost.

Participants in the session stressed that the transition from the Islamic Republic must be swift and smooth, and that civil war can only be prevented through supporting and strengthening an effective opposition. They considered the possibility of Iran’s government collapsing spontaneously to be very slim and emphasized the necessity of designing coordinated strategies by the West.

Experts in the session, while referring to Iran’s recent defeats in the region, stated: “Israel’s targeted attacks in April 2024 and June 2025 have weakened Iran’s defensive capabilities, the destruction of Iran’s proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel has affected Tehran’s regional influence, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government has brought another defeat for Iran.” Nevertheless, attendees predicted that Tehran would still seek to rebuild terrorist networks and continue its nuclear and missile programs.

According to them, attacks by the United States and Israel have been unable to completely stop Iran’s nuclear program, as Tehran had relocated enriched materials before the attacks.

One of the central concerns of this session was the possibility of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps dominance following the fall of the government. Experts emphasized that the IRGC is not merely a military force, but operates as a vast economic consortium with interests in energy, automotive, electronics, and construction industries in Iran and would have the capability to reorganize the country.

However, some participants also warned that even if the IRGC does not gain complete control, the emergence of another oppressive and anti-Western government is possible, whether in the form of Shiite ideology or relying on Iranian nationalism. They recalled that Iranians’ historical memory of the 1953 coup and Western interventions has kept anti-Western sentiment alive in parts of society.

“Dabagh,” one of the Iranian speakers at this session, warned about society’s sensitivity to military interventions and said: “The feeling present in society is despair and heartbreak. Yes! Many Iranians hold their own government responsible for decades of corruption, repression, and international isolation, but this does not mean they will accept or justify Israeli military attacks.” He added: “When cities like Tehran, Isfahan, or Tabriz are bombed and children are killed, it will be very difficult for people to see these actions as anything other than an unlawful and disproportionate aggression.”

Dabagh further emphasized: “Iran’s people want change, but not through this kind of violence. These attacks complicate the democratic efforts of many Iranians. They (the government) align dissenting voices with foreign enemies, whereas most of us simply want accountability, freedom, and a future based on justice, not revenge.”

Participants in the aforementioned session, pointing to the fragmentation of Iran’s opposition, criticized the lack of cohesive leadership and mutual trust, and recalled that groups such as the National Council of Resistance of Iran and the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization, while seeking a non-nuclear and secular Iran, differ in their tactics.

In their view, the best scenario is the formation of a participatory democracy that relies on the cultural and educational heritage of Iran’s people. To achieve this, the West must invest in creating a united opposition and provide the groundwork for drafting a new constitution that both represents various ethnic groups and prevents separatism.

At the end of the session, experts from the “Henry Jackson Society” warned that military intervention alone could backfire and unite Iran’s people around the current government. They proposed that the effective solution lies only in a combination of “external pressure and strengthening of internal forces”; from sanctions and limited attacks to supporting domestic opposition and promoting new messages about Iranian nationalism and Islamic identity.

According to their statements, only under such circumstances can the risk of a power vacuum following the collapse of the Islamic Republic be reduced and a different future be shaped for Iran.

In analyzing the consequences of the potential collapse of the Islamic Republic, the situation of religious minorities, particularly Christians in Iran, should not be overlooked. Experience in recent years has shown that during periods of political and security crises, vulnerable groups face the greatest threats. Iranian Christians have repeatedly faced pressure and discrimination in recent decades; from limitations on church activities to security and social pressures.

If a scenario of power vacuum or civil war occurs in Iran, there is a serious risk that Christians and other minorities will become victims of violence, extremism, or lawlessness. In such circumstances, churches and Christian communities may once again become centers of refuge and service for affected people, as in other parts of the Middle East, and this role would expose them to new threats.

From this perspective, Iran’s political future is not merely a geopolitical issue, but the fate of thousands of Christians and followers of other religions is also tied to it. The defense of religious freedom and the guarantee of minority rights must be an inseparable part of any plan for Iran’s future.