Prediction of COVID-19 Trend in Iran: We Will Be Dealing with It Until Early Summer

Iranian officials are not providing consistent information to the people about the extent of coronavirus spread. One day they speak of a decrease in cases, the next day about its continued spread in the coming months. Yet what is added daily is the death toll statistics.

Kianush Jahanpour, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Health, announced the following statistics on Monday, 11 Farvardin (March 30) regarding the latest confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in Iran and deaths caused by it:

From noon on Sunday, 10 Farvardin (March 29) to today, 11 Farvardin (March 30), and “based on definitive diagnostic criteria, 3,186 new patients with COVID-19 were identified in the country.” According to the same statistics, the total number of identified patients has reached 41,495, and the number of victims in the past 24 hours was 117 people, with the total death toll reaching 2,757.

According to the Health Ministry spokesman, 3,511 patients are in severe condition with this disease, and by noon on Monday, over 63 million people had participated in coronavirus screening.

What Do Predictions Say

The fact is that predicting the trend of spread or decline of this disease is not simple. Currently, in many countries, including Germany, it is only possible to announce the results of an action after about two weeks through estimation and analysis of the results of implementing regulations, and those results can also change over a longer period.

In Iran, given that the government has been unable to implement any regulations that could lead to controlling this disease for a long time, the possibility of having a correct assessment and prediction of the trend of this disease is much more difficult.

In this regard, Parviz Karami, spokesman and head of the communication and media center of the Scientific and Technological Deputy of the Presidency, presented five scenarios on his Instagram post about how the coronavirus will spread until Khordad (May-June). These five scenarios are based on the degree of government intervention and its control.

The first scenario states that if the government does not intervene, the death toll will reach tens of thousands. In other scenarios, differences in the death toll are discussed in relation to the level of minimal government intervention through education and information, or moderate government intervention “including social distancing, closure of sports, cultural and religious gatherings, schools, universities, and restrictions on movement and transportation” are addressed.

The final scenario deals with “high level and severe government intervention, which includes the measures of scenario four and stricter interventions such as preventing intra-city and inter-city movement, quarantining cities and isolating suspected individuals,” which could severely reduce the growth of deaths and bring it to around 7,700 people.

FARS News Agency, in this continuation, reported that the prediction of this analysis is that Iran will be dealing with this virus until early summer, and “the extent of government intervention and restrictions are highly effective in reducing the death rate.”

Government Unable to Adopt Effective Policies

In many countries, the government has intervened actively in all areas; from economic assistance to implementing strict regulations to control the disease. In Iran, coronavirus also initially became a factional issue, and a large group of clergy opposed the quarantine of religious places and the closure of Friday prayers.

But the government is also criticized for being unable, inefficient, and weak in action. While financial resources are mostly in the hands of the Supreme Leader’s office and the Revolutionary Guards, and the government entered year 1399 with a significant budget deficit. For this reason, there is no public trust in what President Hassan Rouhani tells the media. On Sunday, 10 Farvardin, in a session of the National Coronavirus Management and Control Headquarters, he said, “In some provinces we have passed the peak and are on the downward slope, but in some provinces we still cannot speak with certainty.” He also referred to statements by some experts who believed that to make a definitive judgment, one had to wait until the end of the Nowruz holidays to see how the coronavirus epidemic situation was in Iran.

In other words, not all experts believe in the coronavirus peak being passed in some provinces, and they consider judgment premature. This doubt is justified given that the limited measures to restrict movement and social distancing that could slow the spread of COVID-19 disease have only recently begun in Iran.

Eiraj Harirchi, Deputy Minister of Health, also said almost simultaneously with Rouhani in a press conference via video conference: “The spread of coronavirus in 13 provinces has shown a declining trend, and in many villages and small cities that comprise a total of 32 million people, the number of cases has been less than 5.”

Military Forces’ Entry into the Coronavirus Fight Campaign and Mass Production of Kits

During the coronavirus pandemic, in many countries the military is used as an auxiliary force for the medical and health system. Production lines at many factories have changed, for example, instead of soft drinks, industrial alcohol is produced.

IRNA news agency on Monday, 11 Farvardin, citing Mohammad Azizi Delshad, head of the Industrial Research Administration of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reported on the readiness to mass-produce coronavirus detection kits. Regarding the specifications of this kit, he said it can identify the disease within three hours with “high accuracy and very well, and can identify all common genomes in the world.”

According to him, “this kit lacks nothing compared to similar samples in the world, and in some cases advantages have been observed in the accuracy and precision of this kit.”

Source: DW