Revolutionary Guards and Basij Conduct Military Drill to Prevent Potential Tehran Uprising

A spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guards announced the holding of a massive military exercise aimed at preventing a potential uprising in Tehran.

The Revolutionary Guards has organized a drill for Friday, December 12th, with the participation of 110,000 Basij members. According to the Revolutionary Guards spokesperson, this maneuver is designed to prepare for countering any potential threats against the capital. However, the question arises: what threat is Tehran facing that warrants planning such a large-scale military drill?

Hypotheses suggest that only two threats could exist for such a potential uprising: a foreign ground attack or an armed domestic group, or a popular uprising by Tehran residents against the government. Published investigations and evidence indicate that the likelihood of a foreign ground attack on Tehran is zero, as the United States and Israel currently have no threats, readiness, or capabilities for such an attack.

Some experts stated that the number of American military forces in the region is less than 50,000 personnel, and Israel geographically lacks the capability to attack from a distance of 2 kilometers from its borders. On the other hand, no domestic armed group has the capacity to attack Tehran.

When, according to published statements, all possibilities for domestic and foreign attacks are ruled out, the only option can be the holding of such a maneuver for a popular uprising. The preparation of this drill with 110,000 Basij members could mean that the government and the Revolutionary Guards are concerned about a serious threat.

Furthermore, the holding of the mentioned drill coincides with political changes in America, specifically Donald Trump’s taking office and his return to the White House, which has created major concerns for the Islamic Republic. The Revolutionary Guards, as responsible for the security of Tehran and sensitive government centers, are concerned that in case of foreign attacks, domestic protests may also occur, which would create conditions for the government’s collapse.

The sudden fall of the Assad government in Syria has terrified the Islamic Republic and intensified their concerns. Since it has been over two years that the people have expressed their anger and dissatisfaction with the government by taking to the streets, the government fears that given the anger of the Iranian people and widespread protests, even a minor foreign attack could lead them to the same fate as Bashar Assad’s government.

The Revolutionary Guards spokesperson also referred to this threat as “man-made,” which is clearly referring to a popular uprising. As in the past two months, a similar drill was conducted by the Revolutionary Guards around Tehran, which focused on suppressing urban protests.

The upcoming drill demonstrates the government’s fear and concern about a popular uprising. While holding a drill with this number of participants is an attempt to display power to the people and boost the morale of government forces, the reality is that the Islamic Republic does not fear borders, but rather fears every single street in Tehran and other Iranian cities.