The Mystery of Identifying Dozens of COVID-19 Cases Among Travelers from Iran

At least seven countries have so far identified cases of coronavirus infection in individuals who were previously in Iran. The ratio of these individuals to the number of officially confirmed cases in Iran itself bears no resemblance to that in other countries worldwide.

Officials in several countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Canada, have reported identifying one or more individuals infected with the new coronavirus known as COVID-19 who had previously been in Iran.

According to statements from responsible officials in these countries, the number of such individuals exceeds 30 in total, and most of them had spent time in Qom, the center of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran so far.

Most patients with a connection to Iran were identified just days before Islamic Republic officials announced that the number of coronavirus cases in the country was 43 and the death toll was 12.

On Wednesday, the 7th of Esfand (February 26), when a second Iranian traveler infected with coronavirus was identified in Canada, confirmed cases of coronavirus in Iran, according to the latest Health Ministry statistics, increased to 139 and the death toll rose to 19.

Confirmed coronavirus cases in Iran over the past three days have increased dramatically and more than tripled. Nevertheless, the ratio of this number to the cases of coronavirus with origins in Iran abroad bears no proportion or similarity to that in other countries.

Johns Hopkins University, with the most established and reputable research universities in the United States, has launched a special website to monitor and publish information about the spread of coronavirus worldwide. Since this website and other similar websites extract their data from official sources, their data is roughly similar.

According to Johns Hopkins University website statistics, by noon on the 7th of Esfand, 81,191 cases of coronavirus have been identified worldwide, with just over 78,000 of them related to China.

If China Were Like Iran

If we consider even 20 percent as the ratio of identified coronavirus cases originating from Iran abroad to cases within Iran, then in China’s sample, approximately 15,600 people infected with coronavirus should have been identified in various countries, with COVID-19 transmission occurring on Chinese soil.

This is while the total number of people infected with coronavirus identified outside of China, according to Johns Hopkins University statistics by Wednesday, was less than 2,000, with approximately 1,260 of them related to South Korea.

This stark difference could have various causes, the most important of which is the long-standing and well-known tradition of concealment and misrepresentation by senior officials of the Islamic Republic across all political, military, and other government positions.

President Hassan Rouhani, in response to increasing criticism over the lack of transparent communication about the coronavirus outbreak, claimed at a Cabinet meeting on the 7th of Esfand: “We neither minimize nor exaggerate the figures. There is neither magnification nor minimization. I have also emphasized to the Health Ministry that whatever figures exist should be reported to the people truthfully.”

Rouhani’s Claims, Citizens’ Distrust

Given existing evidence and Rouhani’s and other officials’ history of misrepresentation regarding matters such as the bloody suppression of November protests and the shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger aircraft with air defense missiles, public trust in Islamic Republic officials has been severely damaged, and many citizens on social networks regard such claims as false.

Hassan Rouhani on the 27th of Bahman and months after the suppression of November protests, at a press conference about the death toll from those suppressions, claimed: “This figure is in the possession of the country’s coroner’s office, which can announce it.”

Abbas Mosaddegh Arani, head of the Forensic Medicine Organization, on the same day, in a conversation with ILNA news agency, revealed the falsity of this claim, stating that this figure is in possession of the National Security Council, a sub-entity of the Ministry of Interior, and this council has designated the government as responsible for announcing it. In other words, Rouhani possessed this figure on the same day and has not released it to date.

Iran, the Unique Example of Mortality-to-Infection Ratio

Another point that makes the government’s statistics on coronavirus outbreak in Iran questionable is the ratio of the number of infected to deaths from this virus, which is completely inconsistent with estimates by the World Health Organization and the example of all other countries worldwide.

The World Health Organization estimates the mortality rate due to infection with the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3 percent. This estimate applies to all countries worldwide where cases have been identified with minimal differences, and in most countries, the mortality rate is even lower than this, except Iran.

This ratio reached nearly 20 percent just days ago in Iran and, according to figures released on Wednesday, remains slightly above 7 percent.

The number of people infected with coronavirus in South Korea is approximately 9 times that of Iran, but the death toll in that country was until Wednesday seven fewer than Iran.

Islamic Republic officials offer “justifications” to explain the contradiction between their claimed figures and the coronavirus outbreak pattern in other countries, which are very obviously false.

Prevention Management Official Infected with Coronavirus

Iraj Harirchi, Deputy Minister of Health and Secretary of the Special Coronavirus Prevention Management Headquarters, expressed regret on the 5th of Esfand that “all countries in the world” refrain from publishing accurate information about their coronavirus outbreak, and for this reason the Islamic Republic, as the only country publishing “accurate figures,” has “attracted more attention.”

This senior health ministry official who was supposed to manage prevention from coronavirus infection confirmed one day later that he himself had been infected with the coronavirus. Harirchi told ISNA news agency that most countries report the mortality rate based on the number of confirmed and suspected cases, and on this basis the ratio of deceased individuals is lower.

Such a claim, according to available evidence regarding most countries, is incorrect, and in principle, suspected cases are not calculated as part of the infected. South Korea’s official news agency recently reported that when the number of coronavirus cases in the country was around 550, health authorities had tested 22,633 individuals suspected of infection and reached this number of confirmed infections.

On this basis, if we apply the pattern of infection and death from the new coronavirus throughout the world to include the Islamic Republic, which has presented no scientific or logical evidence to the contrary, the number of actual coronavirus infections in Iran could be several times higher than the announced figure.

If reports and unofficial news about concealment of victim numbers or death certificates issued for apparently similar diseases such as pneumonia and respiratory illnesses are correct, the scale of coronavirus spread in Iran would be much more concerning.

How the new coronavirus entered Iran and spread has not been definitively determined or announced. What is certain is the role of mismanagement and lack of necessary equipment to identify and combat the spread of this virus, about which officials also issue conflicting statements.

Conflicting Statements About Diagnostic Kits

According to IRNA news agency, Kianoush Jahanpour, head of the Public Relations and Information Center of the Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education, claimed one month ago (7th of Bahman), when there was discussion about the necessity of screening incoming travelers from China as the point of origin, that coronavirus diagnostic kits existed in Iran and “more would enter in the coming days for strategic reserves.”

While claims about the existence of sufficient diagnostic kits were repeated in recent days by the health minister and several other senior Islamic Republic officials, the Chinese ambassador in Tehran reported this morning in a tweet about donating five thousand coronavirus diagnostic kits “to the Iranian side.”

The number of decision-making centers, the influence and power of religious and military institutions, and the government’s lack of determination and ability to implement effective preventive measures could be factors contributing to the widespread spread of coronavirus.

One of the solutions much discussed has been quarantining the city of Qom and at least closing religious centers and pilgrimage sites in this city, where large crowds come into contact daily.

Hossein Taeb, head of the Quds Force Intelligence Organization, apparently opposed the quarantine of Qom. Mohammad Saidi, administrator of the “Fatima Masumeh Shrine,” responded on the 7th of Esfand in a video message to concerns about the closure of this pilgrimage site, saying among other things: “We consider this sacred shrine as a place of healing, which means people come here and are healed from spiritual and physical ailments.”

Qom’s “Place of Healing,” Center of Deadly Virus Spread

This “place of healing” has so far been unable to prevent infection and death of dozens of Qom residents and several prominent personalities due to coronavirus infection.

On the 4th of Esfand, it was announced that Mohammad Reza Qadir, rector of Qom University of Medical Sciences and head of handling coronavirus patients in this city, himself had been infected with coronavirus. Yesterday, Mojtaba Fazeli, chief of staff and executive and financial officer of Musa Shubiri Zanjani, one of the Shia sources of emulation in Qom, died due to coronavirus infection.

Earlier, the test of the mayor of Tehran’s District 13 for coronavirus infection was also announced positive, and yesterday Mahmoud Sadeghi, a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, announced in a tweet his infection with coronavirus.

Many airlines have completely suspended or severely limited their flights to Iran. The land and sea borders of neighboring countries and Iran have also been closed and are being heavily controlled.

Nevertheless, hundreds of kilometers of border with inadequate or no control in four directions of Iran have made neighboring countries extremely concerned about the spread of coronavirus in this country and the revelation of its actual dimensions.

Given the doubling of coronavirus cases in the past two days, the possibility that this trend will continue in the coming days is not ruled out.

Source: DW