The crisis of distrust; a crisis that did not start with Corona

The contradictory statistics of the coronavirus, the disproportion between the number of deaths and the number of infected people, and the high recovery rate compared to the rest of the world are among the factors that have caused trust in other government recommendations and guidelines to wane in Iran.

According to the latest official statistics announced by Iranian authorities, 1,501 cases of coronavirus have been registered in Iran so far and 66 people have lost their lives due to COVID-19.

Ali Rabiei, Iran's vice president, says "everything is under control." But apparently what is not so under control is the public's distrust of statistics and even government actions.

For example, people have been asked to stay in their homes and avoid unnecessary travel, and schools and universities have been closed for the same reason. However, reports from Iran indicate an influx of people to the northern provinces of Iran, which is also facing a coronavirus crisis.

Medical officials regularly state that there is no need for healthy people to wear masks, and that their use is essential for sick people to prevent the transmission of the virus. However, masks have become scarce in almost all of Iran.

Or, it has been repeatedly said that proper and thorough hand washing with soap and water is sufficient, but alcohol and disinfectants have become scarce.

Where does distrust come from?

First of all, the high mortality rate in Iran compared to other parts of the world has reinforced the suspicion that the true number of infected people must be higher than what the Iranian government has announced.

While the death rate from coronavirus worldwide is between two and two and a half percent, this figure in Iran is over five percent, according to officially announced statistics; the highest death rate after China.

Many experts believe that this stark difference reflects incorrect government statistics rather than a lack of medical facilities in Iran.

The number of recoveries is another dark spot that calls Iran's statistics into question. Today, in the final moments of this report, Iran's Health Minister announced that out of 950 identified patients, 175 have recovered. This means that more than 18 percent of those infected have recovered.

This is while, for example, in South Korea the recovery rate is only 0.69% and in Italy 4.8%. (1)

According to this data and research by Canadian scientists, the number of people infected with the coronavirus in Iran should be around 18,000.

In a report on the blow that contradictory coronavirus statistics have dealt to public trust in Iran, German television channel ZDF quoted a doctor who asked not to be named as saying that the Revolutionary Guards warn hospital doctors when they enter and leave to remain silent about their work and the number of patients infected with coronavirus.

The report also quotes other doctors as saying that in some cases they have been forced to record the cause of death as something other than coronavirus.

A Deutsche Welle user from Gilan also said that in their small town, two people apparently died from "flu," but the cause of their death was not announced, yet their families are in quarantine.

In an article published on his Telegram channel, social researcher Abbas Abdi listed several reasons that, in his opinion, are the reason for people's distrust of the government regarding the Corona issue.

He cited the late announcement of the disease as the first reason that the announcement was not made until the two patients died. He then wrote: "How can you expect that with a month's delay in notifying the disease; and then the president announcing that the situation will return to normal on Saturday; and before Saturday arrives, declaring this week as the peak of the crisis; and two days after this announcement, announcing that the peak of the crisis is next week and that this peak will definitely be delayed again, with this situation, how can people trust and cooperate with your plan?"

The crisis of distrust and its consequences

Saeed Peyvandi, a sociologist based in Paris, believes that the relationship between the state and the nation in Iran is damaged, and this damage shows itself more clearly and distinctly in times of crisis.

He tells DW about the consequences of this damaged relationship: "The most important consequence of this lack of trust between the government and society is that we cannot advance effective policies regarding the crisis that has occurred because, due to this lack of trust, society either ignores this information or does not consider it accurate and transparent, and this is a major challenge for any country."

Saeed Peyvandi says that in countries facing the Corona crisis, there is a type of "confidence in the health system and the type of crisis management by the government," which makes public opinion more easily accept and implement government decisions, and for this reason, it becomes easier to contain the crisis.

In Iran, the lack of trust between the government and the people, according to Saeed Peyvandi, has created the "challenge of crisis containment."

The role of intermediary institutions

When the gap between the state and the people widens, intermediary institutions such as NGOs or the press can fill this gap to some extent. Saeed Peyvandi sees the role of these institutions as “providing reassurance or continuity or verification of government policy,” and believes that the suppression of these institutions by the Iranian government in recent years has left society defenseless against crises.

He says: "In previous years, we in Iran have faced systematic suppression of non-governmental organizations, and this has left Iran defenseless against such incidents. This means that not only is there no efficient and acceptable government to deal with such incidents, but also those intermediary institutions that could play a positive role, albeit not to the same extent as the government, and participate in creating and rebuilding this trust, unfortunately, this also does not exist."

Saeed Peyvandi believes that “the crisis of distrust did not start with the coronavirus.” He points to the floods and earthquakes in recent years, which have each faced Iran with the same crisis.

This time, however, the difference is that "this time, due to the scale of this incident, which is nationwide for the first time and its dimensions are unknown, the lack of this distrust is more prominent, clearer, and more clearly shown, as is the deep rift that is eating away at Iranian society from within."

Source: DW