World Bank Forecast: 200 Million Internal Migrations by 2050 Affected by Climate Change

World Bank research, the results of which were published on Monday, September 3, shows that if greenhouse gas emissions and the development gap between rich and poor countries are not reduced, about 200 million people will migrate by 2050.

The second part of the "Grundswell" research report examines the gradual consequences of climate change around the world, including the reduction of water resources, the decline in the fertility and productivity of agricultural lands, and the rise in sea levels, and their impact on migration within countries.

This study considers three different scenarios corresponding to the severity of climate change over the next three decades.

In the most pessimistic scenario, which is the result of a sharp increase in greenhouse gas emissions and unfair development in the world's countries, about 216 million people will migrate within their own countries. The majority of this phenomenon will occur in Latin America, throughout Africa, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, South Asia, and East Asia and the Pacific.

In the most optimistic scenario, which results in a significant reduction in greenhouse gases and a fair and inclusive global development process, the migration figure will decrease by almost a fifth, or about 44 million people.

This study did not examine the short-term and ad hoc consequences of climate change, including extreme weather events.

"The results of this research clearly demonstrate the strong impact of climate conditions on internal migration," said one of the report's authors and a senior climate change expert at the World Bank.

The study shows that the highest levels of internal migration will occur in the southern hemisphere of the Americas, which is more affected than any other region by deforestation, coastal vulnerability, and the dependence of people's livelihoods on local agriculture. In the most pessimistic scenario, the number of migrants in this part of the world could reach 86 million.

Of course, if we consider the percentage of migrants relative to the population of each part of the world, the highest migration rate due to climate change will occur in North Africa and countries such as Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco, and may reach about 9% of the population.

The study predicts that in South Asia, Bangladesh will be hit hardest by flooding and reduced agricultural productivity, with an estimated 19 million people displaced.

"This is a reality that human society is facing, and our concern is that poor countries will be hit the hardest," Professor Maarten van Slot, head of the Red Cross and Red Crescent's Climate Change Center, told the Associated Press.

The study did not examine migration between countries or continents. According to one of the study's authors, 75 percent of migration typically occurs within borders.

Experience has shown that vulnerable groups or populations suffering from military conflicts or poverty usually have fewer opportunities to adapt to the consequences of climate change and are forced to migrate to other countries.

The study highlights that over the next three decades, new hotspots of mass migration will emerge in different parts of the world. Necessary planning must be made to help migrants who migrate to these hotspots, as well as those who are unable to migrate and remain in affected areas.

World Bank experts emphasized that if necessary measures are not taken to control climate change, including reducing fossil fuel consumption, especially in the next decade, a pessimistic scenario is quite likely.

Source: Radio Farda